New Survey Shows Huge Wave of Apple iPad Demand Striking Amazon

[Mitchll]

It's been just a matter of weeks since Steve Jobs announced the impending release of the new Apple (AAPL) iPad tablet.

A ChangeWave survey of 3,171 consumers -- conducted in the aftermath of that Apple announcement (Feb 1-10) -- shows a huge wave of pre-launch demand for the iPad and offers key evidence that the Apple tablet will have a major impact on the e-Reader, laptop and home entertainment markets.

Moreover, the survey shows Amazon (AMZN) and its e-Reader competitors are poised to take a big hit early on from the iPad's entry into their market.

http://www.investorplace.com/changew...ng-amazon.html

[Teddman]

I'm a bit surprised that Amazon hasn't preemptively acted to entice customers into buying a Kindle before the iPad comes out.

A price cut to $199 for the Kindle 2 would spike sales up quite a bit, especially if they also threw in a few free books. And the Kindle DX certainly needs to drop by at least $100, it just looks silly pricing it at the same level as the basic iPad.

Having a Kindle sale now is going to have a lot more effect than it would once the iPad hype train starts upon release. They're missing a big strategic opportunity.

[Bremen Cole]

Originally Posted by Teddman

I'm a bit surprised that Amazon hasn't preemptively acted to entice customers into buying a Kindle before the iPad comes out.

A price cut to $199 for the Kindle 2 would spike sales up quite a bit, especially if they also threw in a few free books. And the Kindle DX certainly needs to drop by at least $100, it just looks silly pricing it at the same level as the basic iPad.

Having a Kindle sale now is going to have a lot more effect than it would once the iPad hype train starts upon release. They're missing a big strategic opportunity.

I wondered this myself.... The haters can crone all they want, but the iPad is going to have a big effect, and ripples to follow. If I were Amazon I would discount and lock as many people as I could into their revenue stream...... Perhaps they have a secrete weapon of their own?

[DawnFalcon]

Doing it too early and giving Apple a chance to respond would be a mistake, too. There's time yet.

[Bremen Cole]

Originally Posted by DawnFalcon

Doing it too early and giving Apple a chance to respond would be a mistake, too. There's time yet.

Agree, but with an April 3 launch (per Apple) it needs to happen real soon..... Most people will not know of the iPad launch date.... but a potential Kindle buyer, just clicking on "amazon.com" would be tempted with a sweet price point.....

[Solicitous]

Originally Posted by Teddman

I'm a bit surprised that Amazon hasn't preemptively acted to entice customers into buying a Kindle before the iPad comes out.

A price cut to $199 for the Kindle 2 would spike sales up quite a bit, especially if they also threw in a few free books. And the Kindle DX certainly needs to drop by at least $100, it just looks silly pricing it at the same level as the basic iPad.

Having a Kindle sale now is going to have a lot more effect than it would once the iPad hype train starts upon release. They're missing a big strategic opportunity.

I am actually not surprised that Amazon hasn't dropped their price of the Kindle 2/DX. The Kindle has one huge advantage over the iPad for ebooks, the e-ink screen. I know myself that regardless of how cheap the iPad becomes I would always buy an e-ink device for reading over a backlit LCD.

I honestly believe the iPad will be a bit of a fad. It wont be until you can buy a tablet PC with a full OS installed will they really take off. I don't see the point in an iPad if I can't open up ordinary office documents, browse every website I ordinarily do (iPad doesn't support flash apparently). The Kindle has a recognised market - book readers. The iPad doesn't really have a recognised market.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by Solicitous

...I honestly believe the iPad will be a bit of a fad. It wont be until you can buy a tablet PC with a full OS installed will they really take off. I don't see the point in an iPad if I can't open up ordinary office documents, browse every website I ordinarily do (iPad doesn't support flash apparently). The Kindle has a recognised market - book readers. The iPad doesn't really have a recognised market.

I agree, mostly.

The vast majority of users responded that they intend to use the iPad to browse the web, but most of the public is yet unaware that the iPad does not support Flash, and cannot match the desktop browsing experience. Thus, for browsing, the iPad is no better than a primitive mobile device and it cannot access a large number of site (or can only access "lite" versions for mobiles).

I bet, most are envisioning watching Hulu on the bus, or playing Facebook games, and will be unpleasantly surprised when they see a blue diamond instead.

The Kindle DX does probably need to come down in price, and Amazon probably needs to make sure it kills iBooks on price.

I do wish Amazon comes up with Kindle 3, with a larger IPS or better screen, full Flash, camera and multitasking. Base it on Android to take advantage of the apps and have a custom UI, like HTC's Sense. THAT would kill the iPad, IMO.

Where I do disagree, is the need for a desktop OS - tablets will do better as appliances, and Apple is right on that.

[DawnFalcon]

I think you want the Eee Pad, not the Kindle 3. ~3 months.

[cmdahler]

Originally Posted by Solicitous

The Kindle has one huge advantage over the iPad for ebooks, the e-ink screen. I know myself that regardless of how cheap the iPad becomes I would always buy an e-ink device for reading over a backlit LCD.

Yes, but that's just you. You're making the mistake of thinking that the vast majority of people out there in the reading public give a crap about e-ink. The segment of the market that comprises true e-ink fanatics is bound to be very small, to the point that as far as Apple is concerned, it isn't even worth considering.

I honestly believe the iPad will be a bit of a fad.

Right, because the iPod turned out to be just a fad. Without trying to sound too overly dramatic, this device is going to change computing for a huge swath of the general consumer public. It won't be because 95% of them give a damn about reading a book on one: they won't, and Jobs doesn't care. The iPad is the absolutely perfect device for someone like my mom, or my brother, or my wife, or my neighbors, or any number of other general consumers out there who want to check Facebook and email and read the news, but who have no real need for a full-on computer.

But that's why it's going to have such an impact on the e-reader marketplace. It's going to sell for many reasons completely unrelated to reading books, but a good number of people who buy it are probably going to read a book on it, if for no other reason than they can. That means that within just three or four years, Apple will totally dominate the e-reader market. There will always be a niche market for people like you who absolutely must have e-ink no matter what, but e-ink will remain niche for the foreseeable future, and that's entirely because of the impact the iPad is going to have on the market.

The iPad doesn't really have a recognised market.

Sure it does: it's such a huge market that you're missing the forest for the trees.

[Billjr13]

I don't need to drink the Apple Kool-Aid. I like my Sony just fine, battery life, easy to carry. I don't need a crippled computer to read text. I use my Sony to read not surf the web and listen to music and twitter.

[carlobee]

Seems like a lot of people are really driven by Apple's marketing campaigns.

[poshm]

How can you compare the ipad with the kindle or any other eink device anyway?

Eink devices are niche products devised purely for reading whereas the ipad is a multimedia device. There is always room in the Market for niche products so I don't see the Kindle failing anytime soon just because of the ipad.

Sure people will read on the ipad but I think that they will tend to be casual readers who get through a small amount of books per year and therefore don't mind paying Apple's inflated ebook prices.

Personally I'm a big reader so the ipad would not suit me for Reading. Perhaps it might be good for other things like surfing the net etc so I'm not totally ruling it out.

Also the books app that jobs was so keen to show off isn't even going to be available outside the US.

[pwalker8]

I would guess that Amazon will update the Amazon reader for the iPhone to scale up for the iPad and have the best of both worlds, i.e. sale ebooks on both the Kindle and iPad.

[HansTWN]

I am not one of those who will be buying the first iteration of the ipad. Perhaps a future, improved one. But I am very interested to see what will happen during the first 3 months after launch. I have read that about 15-30% of ipod and iphone owners are interested. Which is, of course, a huge number. But my guess is a lot of them will be sitting on the sidelines at the start and watching actual reviews and customer responses. I would be very surprised if it is a huge success after 3-6 months. Apple made a lot of compromises in this version. Through all the hype, a lot of people may not realize that now.

Of course the iPad is not aimed at heavy readers, the reader functionality is just incidental. It is not expensive, but $500 is quite a lot for a gadget with so many limitations that is not doing anything that other devices cannot. Let us see how great the buying publics' gadget lust is.

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by Teddman

I'm a bit surprised that Amazon hasn't preemptively acted to entice customers into buying a Kindle before the iPad comes out.

Amazon win either way. The majority of people who buy an iPad will probably not be existing eBook readers, and Amazon will still benefit via the Kindle app for the iPad.