This is why Amazon is going to win

[Grauheim]

I picked up a couple of ebooks for my Opus the other day. When I tried to load them up, I found I'd made the dumbest of all newbie errors, and that the books were in fact PDF, not ePub. Ouch. I succeeded in "liberating" the first book, and then with a combination of Acrobat Pro, Calibre, Sigil and plain old Vim, I succeeded in turning it into a passible ePub. No luck with the second book, unfortunately.

This is an extreme case, of course, but it made me reflect on just how high the technical barriers are to reading ebooks. I quite routinely need to mess with the format of my books to make them pleasant to read. It is an entire hobby in itself playing with USB cables, Calibre libraries, and making sure everything is backed up correctly. This is enormously far from the pBook world where you just buy a book, open it up and read it.

So Amazon is going to win because they have the only reasonable model - buy your book, and immediately it's on your device and works. The fact that they own both the platform and the bookstore means that they can (at least in theory) make sure that every book they sell formats correctly on the device. And since they are the only supplier of books, they also can host your entire library so you don't need to back it up yourself.

I really dislike Amazon's DRM and closed-world operation. But for mainstream buyers, the competition isn't even in the game.

[HarryT]

I think, personally, that to talk about a single "winner" is rather odd. There's pretty much no area of the market that only has a single player in it. The eBook market will probably shake down to a few big players, and a number of smaller providers with more specialist offerings, but there's really no reason at all to suppose that there will be any one single "winner".

There's absolutely no reason that someone can't launch an ePub-based Reader with an online bookstore and wireless delivery.

[EowynCarter]

That's not wrong. But, proprietary format was the reason i din't buy sony first time round. And the reason i won't go amazon, i like being able to chose where i buy my books. Plus, amazon don't propose book from the french publishers.

[Sweetpea]

Originally Posted by Grauheim

I picked up a couple of ebooks for my Opus the other day. When I tried to load them up, I found I'd made the dumbest of all newbie errors, and that the books were in fact PDF, not ePub. Ouch. I succeeded in "liberating" the first book, and then with a combination of Acrobat Pro, Calibre, Sigil and plain old Vim, I succeeded in turning it into a passible ePub. No luck with the second book, unfortunately.

This is an extreme case, of course, but it made me reflect on just how high the technical barriers are to reading ebooks. I quite routinely need to mess with the format of my books to make them pleasant to read. It is an entire hobby in itself playing with USB cables, Calibre libraries, and making sure everything is backed up correctly. This is enormously far from the pBook world where you just buy a book, open it up and read it.

So Amazon is going to win because they have the only reasonable model - buy your book, and immediately it's on your device and works. The fact that they own both the platform and the bookstore means that they can (at least in theory) make sure that every book they sell formats correctly on the device. And since they are the only supplier of books, they also can host your entire library so you don't need to back it up yourself.

I really dislike Amazon's DRM and closed-world operation. But for mainstream buyers, the competition isn't even in the game.

Oh, and Amazon doesn't have a propriety format that you can only read on their devices and software...

I'd love to buy a few books from Amazon, but won't because they are in a format even worse than PDF. I can't even read it on my WinCE device, while I would have been able to read PDF on it.

[kennyc]

Certainly Amazon has a system that works, much like Apple. Has Apple taken over and "won" the computer market?

As Harry says there will be no one winner, but if the industry can come up with a standard format (which I believe will be epub) then the delivery mechanism can be built around it.

In the situation you present, the mistake was your own which caused the issues. I also once purchased a PDF book because it was listed as Adobe Format and did not specify PDF or EPUB. I was able to "return" the book and get a credit for it even though it was my own fault.

Epub is the answer and Sony will be there with their bookstore in about a month, B&N is going there, Project Guttenberg and Google Books are already there. Amazon is out in the cold all by itself at the moment. Who's going to win?

[Grauheim]

Well, Kenny, actually Apple has won the online music market.

Don't get me wrong - I personally do like ePub and openness, and that's why I bought my Opus. If I were buying a new reader today, I'd probably still get an Opus. But I'm not a typical consumer (and nor are most of you.) All of the computer-level fussing that's required to use a device like the Opus is well beyond what the typical person is willing or able to deal with.

Yes, sure, someone else can duplicate Amazon's set-up. Maybe Sony will get there eventually, but ironically, where I'm sitting at work, I can't even contact the Sony bookstore because their software isn't capable of navigating my proxy. So they have some distance to go.

[FlorenceArt]

Originally Posted by Sweetpea

Oh, and Amazon doesn't have a propriety format that you can only read on their devices and software...

Maybe not, but they won't SELL it to you unless you can prove you have one of their devices. Or has that changed lately?

[brecklundin]

right now I think the biggest issue is the "Company Store" trend in ereading devices and book formats. If you are not from the US then here is info on what "Company Store" means (and other names which might be more familiar because every country has had it happen and some still have it happening):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truck_system

The proprietary book formats are, in essence the analog of when employees of a company were paid in a fashion so that they could only buy from food, materials, clothing, whatever) from a store owned by The Company...at a tidy profit and usually at usury type pricing (keep them fed well enough to keep them hungry so the have to work more). It also kept the employees too poor to find other work options because of the debt they would accumulate with The Company.

"Company Store" reading devices lock readers into that family of readers as they build their libraries. It is a slow innocuous process which people never think about until all of a sudden they want to make a change...well the "debt" to the company is in the form of books already purchased. If, for instance, their device breaks out of warranty then they are stuck either buying another from The Company or lose their probably not insubstantial investment on books when moving to a more open device. This is exactly what Amazon is trying to do, have people so invested in their content before they realize the implications that once they do, people have little choice than to just keep going.

ADE is not really any different but at least they are licensing the format to device makers. And remember Amazon is doing the opposite when they (and yes it was an Amazon decision) refused to allow any other DRM content on a reader if the device maker/brand wanted to add DRM MOBI to the list of formats a device supported. The pointless part of that is if a maker wanted to, all they needed do was to support a 3rd party ebook reading software company in adding MOBI DRM then making sure that software could run on their open device. So far I don't think any device maker chose that route because I think it was already in the wind that DRM MOBI was on the way out. Maybe it was an Amazon gambit to see if any device maker would try that work around then end up having wasted a fair amount of cash, though there is enough DRM MOBI content out there that I still see it as viable, maybe but it's probably priced way over the top.

It's convoluted, complicated and completely anti-consumer the way the industry is moving. Thankfully there is enough free reading material of interest out there that I honestly never need to buy another ebook. So, I just want a reader which stays out of my way when i use it.

[brecklundin]

Originally Posted by FlorenceArt

Maybe not, but they won't SELL it to you unless you can prove you have one of their devices. Or has that changed lately?

download Kindle Reader for the PC....the software for the IpOd/touch...so Amazon is targeting getting their reader software on other platforms in order to compete. Then you can jailbreak your AWZ books and read them wherever you wish. And I don't see Amazon converting every title to Topaz anytime soon...

I sense Amazon is banking on Win7 on a lot of mobile devices.

[FlorenceArt]

Originally Posted by brecklundin

download Kindle Reader for the PC....the software for the IpOd/touch...so Amazon is targeting getting their reader software on other platforms in order to compete. Then you can jailbreak your AWZ books and read them wherever you wish. And I don't see Amazon converting every title to Topaz anytime soon...

I sense Amazon is banking on Win7 on a lot of mobile devices.

Maybe I can do all that... or maybe I can buy somewhere else, where I just have to download and copy on my CyBook. I'm not especially interested in buying products that I will have to spend several minutes (not to mention the initial work of installing stuff on my computer and figuring out how to use it) making useable.

If Amazon doesn't want my money, that's fine with me. I used to buy most of my books there, now I rarely even visit the site. Their loss, not mine.

That said, I'm sure that many people will like the Amazon flow, which is maybe less intimidating than manually copying a file on the reader, as I do.

I agree that there won't be one winner, but rather different solutions available for different people with different needs and preferences. The Amazon way is efficient, but it's not for everyone.

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by Grauheim

Well, Kenny, actually Apple has won the online music market.

Don't get me wrong - I personally do like ePub and openness, and that's why I bought my Opus. If I were buying a new reader today, I'd probably still get an Opus. But I'm not a typical consumer (and nor are most of you.) All of the computer-level fussing that's required to use a device like the Opus is well beyond what the typical person is willing or able to deal with.

Yes, sure, someone else can duplicate Amazon's set-up. Maybe Sony will get there eventually, but ironically, where I'm sitting at work, I can't even contact the Sony bookstore because their software isn't capable of navigating my proxy. So they have some distance to go.

You are nitpicking and selecting examples. Apple has not won the digital music war nor even the on-line war. Not by a long shot. But that's not even what I was discussing as you well know.

Yes, there is a lot of fiddling needed from where you are, but precisely what I said about a standard and companies getting on board is addressing the issue. Once Sony and B&N are epub -- as well as the free and independent sellers what chance do you think Amazon will have in the ebook world if they do not come around? Very little. Sure they will continue to sell ebooks, but they certainly won't "win."

[Kali Yuga]

I concur that it is unlikely that one company will "win," if "winning" means market exclusivity -- especially with something as diverse as global book sales. However it is quite plausible for one company to gain enough market share to dominate and throw its weight around, despite publishers' attempts to avoid exactly that scenario.

I don't think people care very much about format though. It's a technical detail that is far less important to consumers than title availability, price and the overall quality of the experience. The real benefit of Sony and B&N switching to ePub are the publishers, who now have at least two fewer formats to deal with.

So a handful of ebook wonks may be delighted over more retailers switching to ePub, but I doubt it will result in a specific device really taking off in the market.

[luqmaninbmore]

Originally Posted by Grauheim

I picked up a couple of ebooks for my Opus the other day. When I tried to load them up, I found I'd made the dumbest of all newbie errors, and that the books were in fact PDF, not ePub. Ouch. I succeeded in "liberating" the first book, and then with a combination of Acrobat Pro, Calibre, Sigil and plain old Vim, I succeeded in turning it into a passible ePub. No luck with the second book, unfortunately.

This is an extreme case, of course, but it made me reflect on just how high the technical barriers are to reading ebooks. I quite routinely need to mess with the format of my books to make them pleasant to read. It is an entire hobby in itself playing with USB cables, Calibre libraries, and making sure everything is backed up correctly. This is enormously far from the pBook world where you just buy a book, open it up and read it.

So Amazon is going to win because they have the only reasonable model - buy your book, and immediately it's on your device and works. The fact that they own both the platform and the bookstore means that they can (at least in theory) make sure that every book they sell formats correctly on the device. And since they are the only supplier of books, they also can host your entire library so you don't need to back it up yourself.

I really dislike Amazon's DRM and closed-world operation. But for mainstream buyers, the competition isn't even in the game.

I really don't think it's that big of an issue. The Opus is not a good example because it doesn't have reflow, AFAIK. If I had accidently downloaded a PDF on my Pocketbook 360 or my Sony, I could just reflow it on the device like I do with my library books. And don't forget the latter; Amazon has a really big Achilles heal right now in that they don't support library books (even though it would be easy to do so with mobi-drm). It's very difficult to beat free, especially when you have substantial choice coupled with it. There have been many instances when I haven't had to buy an e-book because it was available from my local library. Also, the other manufacturers are moving to tighter integration of the device and store. We are seeing now with the Sony Daily Edition, the new Irex device, and, most famously, the nook.

Luqman

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

I concur that it is unlikely that one company will "win," if "winning" means market exclusivity -- especially with something as diverse as global book sales. However it is quite plausible for one company to gain enough market share to dominate and throw its weight around, despite publishers' attempts to avoid exactly that scenario.

I don't think people care very much about format though. It's a technical detail that is far less important to consumers than title availability, price and the overall quality of the experience. The real benefit of Sony and B&N switching to ePub are the publishers, who now have at least two fewer formats to deal with.

So a handful of ebook wonks may be delighted over more retailers switching to ePub, but I doubt it will result in a specific device really taking off in the market.

I think it's the public that benefits. By having a standard format then ALL devices will support it, ALL publishers with publish in it and the consumer will benefit through selection and price, regardless of supplier, publisher, or device.

[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by kennyc

You are nitpicking and selecting examples. Apple has not won the digital music war nor even the on-line war. Not by a long shot.

The iTunes music store currently has about 70% of the online music sales market, which in turn adds up to 25% of the overall market (this is US only btw). The next closest competitor is Amazon with 8% of the digital market. We are dealing with an ongoing process, but at least at the moment Apple is clearly dominant in music sales -- despite using a "minority" format (AAC) and, for much of its history, a proprietary DRM scheme (Fairplay).

Originally Posted by kennyc

...what chance do you think Amazon will have in the ebook world if they do not come around? Very little. Sure they will continue to sell ebooks, but they certainly won't "win."

If Amazon captures a significant percentage of the ebook sales market -- say, 40% or more -- then I see no reason to doubt that publishers will continue to convert their books to Amazon's format. I can't imagine a publisher will want to stay away from such a huge chunk of customers solely due to the cost of conversion.

Since it's unlikely that Amazon will lose market share simply based on format offerings, I see little reason why everyone else switching to ePub -- especially as long as they have unique DRM wrappers that prevent Sony books being read on the Nook, and vice versa -- will have much of an impact on Amazon.