Saturation

dodgyville · 10-04-2008, 06:38 PM

While I am all for more competition the recent proliferation of these devices has confused me and I think will have a depressing effect on sales as consumers wait to see which ones are winners and which ones are "dead-ends".

It's going to be like the video game crash in the 1980s.

And while I'm whingeing like an old man, e-ink screens are still too expensive. While I think they are revolutionary and "game-changing" technology, for the cost the are still a bit ... lame!

Come on scientists - get back to work! Faster updates and better contrast!

timezone · 10-05-2008, 09:58 PM

I think there are no easy answers. If you want a screen with great contrast then get an iRex. Except it is the most expensive reader out of an expensive lot.

I think consolidation can take one of two forms. In its current configuration I think there is a better chance of seeing consolidation in the reader software. I wonder if the publishers really want to run a new setup for a half dozen different format types every time they publish a new book. The bigger point, as a pure reader it doesn't matter how many companies jump in. It is like TV's or radios. If there is any consolidation it will be based on popularity rather than the hardware format. The exception will be if these readers start to morph into a tablet PC. The iRex has a toe or two in that direction. Then consolidation might be swift based on the OS. How many different OS's can we really handle? Even Palm is struggling and has moved to a windows OS. Once there is a color screen with similar refresh rates to today's laptop screens then we may see a Tablet WinTel machine using an E ink screen. Then the gloves will come off. Until that time I don't think it matters what reader you buy. Buy the one that fits your needs and budget. Unless of course you think Amazon is going to take the market then get a Kindle. Many people believe it is between Amazon and Sony. I have an iRex and I am not losing sleep over that war.

I don't think it is an issue with the scientists not working hard to push the envelop. I think the problem has more to do with being able to ramp up production to commercially produce large lots cheaply and do it with acceptable failure rates. That was the problem at first with large Plasma TV's. They lost the whole glass sheet when the Plasma screen failed during the production run. Rather than losing 1/3 or 1/4 for smaller sizes because they were able to cut up the glass into sections. It added to the cost of the product. Now the production process has greatly improved. Color E ink screens exist in the lab. Not sure of the reason why we haven't seen them yet but it must have something to do with cost and having a commercial production process that has low failure rates. Remember you are concerned with cost.

Of course this is all speculation but I think an interesting topic.

HarryT · 10-06-2008, 02:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by timezone

I think consolidation can take one of two forms. In its current configuration I think there is a better chance of seeing consolidation in the reader software.

We already have that - the majority of devices on the market support MobiPocket, which is very much a de facto industry standard.

"ePub" may become another such standard in the future - time will tell.

kovidgoyal · 10-06-2008, 03:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryT

We already have that - the majority of devices on the market support MobiPocket, which is very much a de facto industry standard.

"ePub" may become another such standard in the future - time will tell.

Actually, neither of the two major devices on the market support mobipocket.

HarryT · 10-06-2008, 03:53 AM

What do you consider to be the major devices? eInk devices which support Mobi are:

iLiad
Gen3
Kindle
Hanlin V3
BeBook

... and I've probably missed off a few. It's also supported on numerous hand-held devices - Pocket PC, Palm, Symbian mobile phones, Blackberry, etc etc. It really is the most "pervasive" format out there at the present time.

The only "mainstream" eInk device I know of which doesn't support it is the Sony Reader. What did you have in mind?

kovidgoyal · 10-06-2008, 04:02 AM

The Kindle and the Sony Reader(s). The Kindle doesn't support mobipocket (at least, Amazon doesn't want it to

And as for miscellaneous handhelds, they support pretty much every format out there, with the exceptions of LRF and EPUB.

As for the iliad, gen3, bebook, hanlin v3, I doubt their combined sales make up even 20% of the market, at least in the US.

AshW · 10-06-2008, 04:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dodgyville

It's going to be like the video game crash in the 1980s.

It won't be.

One thing to keep in mind is that the industry driving eBooks/eReaders, that is the publishing industry, exists in it's own right outside of the ePublishing industry. This is a very different setup to the video game industry in the 80s.

Even if the market were saturated (it isn't) and it had an impact on the sale of the devices (it won't) this wouldn't have any impact on the infrastructure of the industry behind ebooks because at this point the revenue from electronic versions of books is fairly negligible in comparison to the print versions.

HarryT · 10-06-2008, 04:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kovidgoyal

The Kindle and the Sony Reader(s). The Kindle doesn't support mobipocket (at least, Amazon doesn't want it to

I must respectfully disagree. The Kindle reads DRM-free Mobi just fine, and the fact that Amazon use their own private DRM server for DRM-enhanced books does not make it any "less" MobiPocket

.

kovidgoyal · 10-06-2008, 04:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HarryT

I must respectfully disagree. The Kindle reads DRM-free Mobi just fine, and the fact that Amazon use their own private DRM server for DRM-enhanced books does not make it any "less" MobiPocket

.

Ah we're talking DRM free ebook formats, in that case, it really doesn't matter as every format is convertible into every other format trivially.

HarryT · 10-06-2008, 04:35 AM

Well, most formats anyway. Yes, I agree

. The reason I like Mobi, though, is that I can read the same books on my mobile phone, PDA, and dedicated eBook reader. Plus, of course, dictionary lookup, which is extremely useful.

Slider1960 · 10-08-2008, 02:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dodgyville

While I am all for more competition the recent proliferation of these devices has confused me and I think will have a depressing effect on sales as consumers wait to see which ones are winners and which ones are "dead-ends".

This was my fear on getting interested: It seems that with marketing clout and the undeniable ergonomic beauty of the Sony Reader it could well become the Ipod of the reader world. That said, once again (still don't own an ipod, currently Zen) I would prefer to swim against the tide and a practically closed format. In the MP3 world, there are still lots of players that support other formats and can offer more features, but the sheer market dominance of ipod means that most people don't think there is an alternative.

All that said (especially the bit about still not having an ipod) these readers are beginning to reach a price point where the option to change one's mind still exists as the market matures.

I would rather have a product now than wait for world to decide which 'standard' it wants to follow.

Sorry if this sound opinionated from a forum newbie

10-04-2008, 06:38 PM	#1
dodgyville Member Posts: 11 Karma: 10 Join Date: Nov 2007 Device: E65	Saturation While I am all for more competition the recent proliferation of these devices has confused me and I think will have a depressing effect on sales as consumers wait to see which ones are winners and which ones are "dead-ends". It's going to be like the video game crash in the 1980s. And while I'm whingeing like an old man, e-ink screens are still too expensive. While I think they are revolutionary and "game-changing" technology, for the cost the are still a bit ... lame! Come on scientists - get back to work! Faster updates and better contrast!

10-05-2008, 09:58 PM	#2
timezone Addict Posts: 244 Karma: 1232 Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Boston, MA Device: Windows Phone7, Kindle Fire	I think there are no easy answers. If you want a screen with great contrast then get an iRex. Except it is the most expensive reader out of an expensive lot. I think consolidation can take one of two forms. In its current configuration I think there is a better chance of seeing consolidation in the reader software. I wonder if the publishers really want to run a new setup for a half dozen different format types every time they publish a new book. The bigger point, as a pure reader it doesn't matter how many companies jump in. It is like TV's or radios. If there is any consolidation it will be based on popularity rather than the hardware format. The exception will be if these readers start to morph into a tablet PC. The iRex has a toe or two in that direction. Then consolidation might be swift based on the OS. How many different OS's can we really handle? Even Palm is struggling and has moved to a windows OS. Once there is a color screen with similar refresh rates to today's laptop screens then we may see a Tablet WinTel machine using an E ink screen. Then the gloves will come off. Until that time I don't think it matters what reader you buy. Buy the one that fits your needs and budget. Unless of course you think Amazon is going to take the market then get a Kindle. Many people believe it is between Amazon and Sony. I have an iRex and I am not losing sleep over that war. I don't think it is an issue with the scientists not working hard to push the envelop. I think the problem has more to do with being able to ramp up production to commercially produce large lots cheaply and do it with acceptable failure rates. That was the problem at first with large Plasma TV's. They lost the whole glass sheet when the Plasma screen failed during the production run. Rather than losing 1/3 or 1/4 for smaller sizes because they were able to cut up the glass into sections. It added to the cost of the product. Now the production process has greatly improved. Color E ink screens exist in the lab. Not sure of the reason why we haven't seen them yet but it must have something to do with cost and having a commercial production process that has low failure rates. Remember you are concerned with cost. Of course this is all speculation but I think an interesting topic.

10-06-2008, 03:53 AM	#5
HarryT eBook Enthusiast Posts: 85,544 Karma: 93383043 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: UK Device: Kindle Oasis 2, iPad Pro 10.5", iPhone 6	What do you consider to be the major devices? eInk devices which support Mobi are: iLiad Gen3 Kindle Hanlin V3 BeBook ... and I've probably missed off a few. It's also supported on numerous hand-held devices - Pocket PC, Palm, Symbian mobile phones, Blackberry, etc etc. It really is the most "pervasive" format out there at the present time. The only "mainstream" eInk device I know of which doesn't support it is the Sony Reader. What did you have in mind?

10-06-2008, 04:02 AM	#6
kovidgoyal creator of calibre Posts: 44,153 Karma: 22670164 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Mumbai, India Device: Various	The Kindle and the Sony Reader(s). The Kindle doesn't support mobipocket (at least, Amazon doesn't want it to And as for miscellaneous handhelds, they support pretty much every format out there, with the exceptions of LRF and EPUB. As for the iliad, gen3, bebook, hanlin v3, I doubt their combined sales make up even 20% of the market, at least in the US.

10-06-2008, 04:35 AM	#10
HarryT eBook Enthusiast Posts: 85,544 Karma: 93383043 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: UK Device: Kindle Oasis 2, iPad Pro 10.5", iPhone 6	Well, most formats anyway. Yes, I agree . The reason I like Mobi, though, is that I can read the same books on my mobile phone, PDA, and dedicated eBook reader. Plus, of course, dictionary lookup, which is extremely useful.

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