E-books to outsell print by 2018 says new report

[alanHd]

Story here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-27694650

[Nate the great]

It's probably bunk:
http://the-digital-reader.com/2014/0...2018-nonsense/

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Nate the great

It's probably bunk:
http://the-digital-reader.com/2014/0...2018-nonsense/

The primary reason they are almost certainly wrong is they are predicting that total *monetary* value of ebooks will exceed the retail value of pbooks.
I could see unit sales of ebooks hitting parity within a few years but not the monetary value: the "plateau" being reported in the US is for trabpub ebook revenue which is the result of declining average ebook prices and the continuing growth of indie sales, both of which are lower than pbook prices. The ongoing trends are for lower average ebook prices and higher pbook prices (big declines in the cheaper mmpb, minimal to modest growth in the more expensive formats). Even sticking with tradpub titles there is a minimum 50% spread between ebook and pbook prices ($8-12+). Factor in indie titles and the average ebook price drops to ~$6 so ebooks would have to outsell pbooks two to one to achieve monetary parity. Right now the ratio is two-to-one the other way. Even a total collapse of the remaining mmpb market won't get e books that far in 18 months or even 36.

PwC is probably using old ebook pricing numbers in their projections and underestimating indie ebook sales volume. Too optimistic. There's lots of growth left in ebooks but that growth is coming at the low end.

[Nate the great]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

The primary reason they are almost certainly wrong is they are predicting that total *monetary* value of ebooks will exceed the retail value of pbooks.
I could see unit sales of ebooks hitting parity within a few years but not the monetary value: the "plateau" being reported in the US is for trabpub ebook revenue which is the result of declining average ebook prices and the continuing growth of indie sales, both of which are lower than pbook prices. The ongoing trends are for lower average ebook prices and higher pbook prices (big declines in the cheaper mmpb, minimal to modest growth in the more expensive formats). Even sticking with tradpub titles there is a minimum 50% spread between ebook and pbook prices ($8-12+). Factor in indie titles and the average ebook price drops to ~$6 so ebooks would have to outsell pbooks two to one to achieve monetary parity. Right now the ratio is two-to-one the other way. Even a total collapse of the remaining mmpb market won't get e books that far in 18 months or even 36.

PwC is probably using old ebook pricing numbers in their projections and underestimating indie ebook sales volume. Too optimistic. There's lots of growth left in ebooks but that growth is coming at the low end.

This would make a great comment on my blog post.

[rollei]

I would not be surprised, I stopped buying print books

[PurpleStar]

I thought they were already outselling print books. At least on Amazon.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by PurpleStar

I thought they were already outselling print books. At least on Amazon.

Contrary to the "Amazon is the bogeyman" claims, there are a lot more pbooks sold through non-Amazon channels than through Amazon.
For starters, half of all pbooks are still sold through B&M. And Amazon has at most 60% of the pbooks sold online, which puts their pbook share at 30% or so. Odds are, B&N sells as about as many pbooks as Amazon.

[keeska]

I do not really care whether ebooks or pbooks sell better. Why does it matter?

Some types of books are better in ebook format and some are better as a pbook. My only concern would be if the sales of pbooks fell so low that publishers stopped printing them or the prices skyrocket due to limited availability.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by keeska

My only concern would be if the sales of pbooks fell so low that publishers stopped printing them or the prices skyrocket due to limited availability.

Both are on the horizon.
Harlequin was just sold because they depended heavily on mass market paperbacks and that market is no longer all that mass-ive. Print editions are being moved to the more expensive formats.
And that is why the ebook/pbook ratio matters.

The other ratio that matters is the ratio of backlist revenue to new release revenue. It currently stands at 31% for ebooks and growing.
Publisher revenue comes from three categories: bestsellers, midlist, and backlist; the bigger the backlist revenue becomes (especially in ebook form), the less important the midlist becomes. Especially for print editions. Already the big publishers are floating a new standard contract that doesn't guarantee print editions to midlisters. So a lot of new books are only going to be released in ebook form.

[sirmaru]

I haven't purchased any print books since 1990 when Microsoft introduced their eBooks for PC's.

[Froide]

Originally Posted by PurpleStar

I thought they were already outselling print books. At least on Amazon.

Yep. That's been true for some years now.

[ereaderSam]

Then if we ever lose electricity books will be gone forever.

[afv011]

Originally Posted by ereaderSam

Then if we ever lose electricity books will be gone forever.

Not necessarily.

[latepaul]

Originally Posted by ereaderSam

Then if we ever lose electricity books will be gone forever.

If we ever lose electricity books will be the least of our problems. Western civilisation pretty much depends on electricity. Yes we'd survive, adapt without it - but it'd be painful and take a while.

Originally Posted by ereaderSam

Then if we ever lose electricity books will be gone forever.

Nah, still plenty of clay tablets written 6500 years ago that would be around. It is strange that we went from clay tablets which can last thousands of years, to vellum and papyrus and other organic materials that deteriorate rather quickly (a few centuries), to digital medium that gets outdated within a few years. You would be hard pressed to find many floppy diskettes with intact data from the 1970s and 1980s, or VHS/Beta tapes that are in great shape. Even DVDs will lose data over the years. And now we have cyberspace books that can be saved on various memory types, but 20 years from now those memory types will possibly be obsolete. It looks like we are constantly choosing book mediums on which to record our written words that are progressively shorter lived. Maybe in the future we will return to an aural/oral culture where words reside only in our brains, like they did pre-history.