Predictions for 2004 on the Mobile Market

[Colin Dunstan]

The Yankee Group has an interesting 33-pages report predicting what will influence consumer, business and enterprise adoption of new technologies and services in 2004. One major coverage includes Wireless/Mobile. The report is (still) available for free after a quick and painless registration.

Summery of some interesting prediction and forecasts:
- In the US, subscribers are expected to grow by 7.2 percent from approximately 152 million at the end of 2003 to 163 million by the end of 2004

- At least 6% of the U.S. population will have hung up their landlines for good. Wireless minutes of use (MoU) will continue to grow from 550 monthly in 3Q 03 to 650 or more by year-end, as mobile substitutes for the fixed network

- Penetration of wireless and mobile services will grow to 27.4 percent of the world's population by 2007

- Price competition will continue in the U.S. wireless market, culminating in more widely available, virtually unlimited voice plans by the end of 2004

- Microsoft will gain share in the wireless handset OS market, leaving Symbian and Linux to make critical business decisions

- Nokia’s global handset market share will remain stable in 2004, but the dynamics of its primacy will change.