"Friction" is why e-books adoption is slow

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

And after we just discussed environmental issues, I can't believe I left it off!

No tree harvesting for paper. No chemicals or dyes expended making paper, and dumped into our streams. No landfilled pulp. No physical shipping, saving on fuel costs.

I never thought about buying Al Gore's book (I saw the movie!)... is it available on e-book? I never looked for it.

That does, of course, have to be balanced against the environmental damage that the production of the reader causes, but I'm sure that, if one has a fair number of eBooks, the overall "balance" is positive.

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by phrodod

I'm a first time poster here. And here's my take on this subject.

In order for e-books to become popular, publishers need to offer SUBSTANTIAL discounts to e-customers. 20-35% off just doesn't cut it. I wouldn't expect to see widespread adoption unless e-book prices were no more than 25-35% of paperback prices.

I might go with 50%. I'm not sure well see 25% - 35%.

Right now, the computer reading experience is tiring, so most people won't read at a computer the way they will with a paper book. And electronic ink readers are still EXPENSIVE. If I'm expected to foot the bill for the reader independently of the book, I'd better get a HUGE discount on the book. I can get paper books from the library, and can pick up paperback fiction for under $10 per book new. I can also get them used, and sell them or pass them on when I'm done. Since I can't do any of the above with an e-book, I expect to pay a lot less.

How tiring it is depends upon the reader and the device/ Things like the Sony Reader with eInk technology are intended to make the reading experience as comfortable as reading a paper volume.

Even if I read 100 books a year, a $300 reader works out to $3/book. I'd have to get a better discount than that to justify my investment. And if most readers are like me, they'll only read twenty or thirty books a year. It generally takes me 1-2 weeks to finish a book. At that price, I'd have to get a rebate on a reader and get the books for free.

IT works out to that price for that year. In subsequent years, the cost per book of the reader drops.

With the $60 offer from Sony, I'm going to try out the reader anyway (if they'll ever ship it...), but I'm primarily hoping to use it for those situations where I currently print out a substantial amount of paper documentation. If it saves me a large amount of printing, it will (hopefully) be worth it. I don't expect to use it for most of my pleasure reading, but I might be pleasantly surprised.

I read ebooks on my PalmOS PDA. I started using it in the first place precisely for documentation, that I could have in searchable electronic form, and carry a full set on manuals in my pocket. It worked for for the purpose.

Subsequently I discovered I could comfortably read fiction on it, too.

It seems to me that the best ways of promoting something like the reader are by hooking commuters who ride buses, subways, etc., and who bring along the current newspaper or magazine. If these were offered in a Reader format, it would be MUCH simpler to page through the newspaper in electronic format than in paper format in this type of environment.

There you encounter the issue of deleivery: how do you get this morning's newspaper on their reader reliably? And at least half the folks I see on the subway any given trip are reading books.

One other thing to note is that with the high price of these devices, people have to be much more careful than with regular books, magazines, or newspapers. You don't want to get them wet or drop them. Where you might read a trashy novel at Starbucks or on the beach, with your Reader, you might be worried about spilling your latte or getting sand or salt water splashed on it.

We can hope the prices will come down, but this is simply a variant of issues folks already face with smartphones and iPods.

With all the potential negative issues, the main potential positive issue I can see is price. Publishers using e-media avoid printing, materials, and shipping costs by having the consumer foot this bill.

What bill? With electronic editions, manufacturing, distribution, and shipping largely don't exist. Acguisition, preparation, and promotional cost still do.

In addition, they don't have to worry about the potential price dilution from ending up in the discount bin. There'd be no reason that books would have to end up there if they were only sold electronically. Finally, there'd be no reason for e-books to go out of print. Once the format is ready, you can keep on selling it as long as people keep buying. For all these reasons, publishers should be eager to make e-books succeed, but to do that, they need to offer customers better incentives. Cheap prices are the key to this.

There would still be reasons for things to go out of print.

When a book is out of print, the author can request that the rights be returned, and attempt to resell the property elsewhere. Electronic editions and Print on Demand have raised the question "What is meant bu out of print?", and current contracts tend to include sales of paper editions, PoD editions, and ebooks over a specified period to determine when the rights lapse.

The author doesn't want the rights retained by the publisher indefinitely unless the publisher actively attempts to *sell* the work. Simply having electronic copies available isn't exactly active selling.

And yes, you don't exactly have books ending up in the bargain bin, though the equivalent might happen. It would depend upon how the book was sold.

One possible marketing approach to maximize profits would be to gradually lower the price as the book aged. If you wanted the latest book right away, you'd know that you'd pay more, but if you're willing to wait a bit, you can get a much better price. If you're looking for new authors, and the books are really cheap, you're far more likely to take a chance if the price is minimal.

This is the retail approach to fashion: age items, with different price points at 30, 60, and 90 days, and finally marked down for clearance.

But clothing can't be returned to vendors if it doesn't sell. Books can be. The publishing industry has traditionally had a 100% returns policy. If it doesn't sell, it goes back for credit. Publishers are starting to experiment with higher discounts to retailers in exchange for less returns

There have been some experiments with lower prices on first books by new authors.
______
Dennis

[petermillard]

One of the things I've found telling about this thread (and others before it) is that even here on MobileRead, amongst people who 'get' the whole ebook concept, we can't actually agree on what features we want for the concept to reach critical mass - or rather, perhaps, everybody's ideal feature set is different.

Originally Posted by phrodod

In order for e-books to become popular, publishers need to offer SUBSTANTIAL discounts to e-customers. 20-35% off just doesn't cut it. I wouldn't expect to see widespread adoption unless e-book prices were no more than 25-35% of paperback prices.

Why? A book is a book; if it's a book I really want to read, I'll pay the asking price for it. I may have a quick hunt around to see if I can pick it up cheaper elsewhere, but if I want it I'll buy it. If it was available as an ebook, and I didn't want a hard copy for posterity, then I'd happily buy that at the asking price - who wouldn't?

Most of my reading 'for pleasure' is fiction, and I can usually contain myself long enough for the paperback edition of a title to come out; half the price of the hardback, and it's exactly the same words! Publishers produce hardbacks first, because it's seen as a premium product, that can command a higher price.

Of course, it would be nice if publishers responded to logic and reduced the cost of eBooks to correspond to their reduced production cost - but why would they? Music downloads from iTunes Music Store aren't cheaper than buying a whole CD, are they? Publishers are in business to make profit, and if they can maximise profits for little extra cost, they will.

Here's a thought (unpleasant); what if publishers decided to pitch eBooks as the premium product, published 6 months ahead of hardbacks; what would people be prepared to pay for that? Hardback price? Hardback price plus 25%? Who knows - and I suspect (hope) we'll never get to find out for real.

My two-penneth.

Cheers,

Pete.

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by petermillard

Here's a thought (unpleasant); what if publishers decided to pitch eBooks as the premium product, published 6 months ahead of hardbacks; what would people be prepared to pay for that? Hardback price? Hardback price plus 25%? Who knows - and I suspect (hope) we'll never get to find out for real.

That's exactly what Baen do - publish "advance" copies of eBooks at a premium price some months before they appear, much cheaper, on their monthly "Webscriptions" service. Presumably it works for them.

[andym]

Some thoughts:-

The hardware is only just starting to be ready for prime time. The Sony Reader is only available in the US, the Iliad costs over $850 over here (in the UK). Yes the displays are very nice but you are playing a heck of a premium for them - the functionality of the ereaders is very, very limited in comparison with say a PDA (eg never mind being able to use the web on a Sony Reader, you have to convert html documents to Sony format!). If the reader sold at $100 and read all of the available formats (or at least the basics - pdf, mobipocket, html, text, rtf, Word) and has some pda functionality - well I might be interested.

I don't know whether the future is a super-gizmo that doubles as a phone, MP3 player, video player, GPS and eReader, or separate devices for all or some of these functions - probably a combination of the two.

I know people have rightly made the point about the limited range of content, but equally the content available as eBooks does seem to be a lot wider than it was even a couple of years ago. More and more computer books are available in pdf (paper computer manuals are now more or less extinct). Lonely Planet are making available more of their travel guides available. I'm sure the same is true of a lot of other areas of publishing - at least where the books are big and bulky, the content is for reference, and needs updating at regular intervals.

It's interesting that in the pdf e-Book market publishers have gone down the route of 'social DRM' ie the content is clearly marked as for the (named) purchaser's individual use - a much simpler solution than locking to devices. SFAIK it is as effective as more complicated 'proprietary' solutions.

As far as handheld devices are concerned the ePub standard has got to be the key. I think the mobipocket is a great piece of software ( the look up and annotation facilities for example are just really slick) but I very much doubt publishers ae going to want to replicate what has happened with iTunes and the market for legal music downloads (though that said you wonder what would have happened if it hadn't been for the success of iTunes).

I suspect that publishers will start to jump on the bandwagon once there is an easy way to repurpose content as an e-Book that doesn't tie them into one route to the market. Hopefully Amazon will put its weight behind eBooks - eg a big button 'Want it now?' or whatever, as well as promoting the general advantages of eBooks over pBooks for many types of book.

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by andym

I don't know whether the future is a super-gizmo that doubles as a phone, MP3 player, video player, GPS and eReader, or separate devices for all or some of these functions - probably a combination of the two.

Many of these aims are clearly contradictory - how many people want a phone the size of a book? Or a book the size of a very small MP3 player? For some devices, small size is a "plus", but for others, large size is.

As far as handheld devices are concerned the ePub standard has got to be the key. I think the mobipocket is a great piece of software ( the look up and annotation facilities for example are just really slick) but I very much doubt publishers ae going to want to replicate what has happened with iTunes and the market for legal music downloads (though that said you wonder what would have happened if it hadn't been for the success of iTunes).

I'm not sure I'm with you; iTunes has been a great success. It would be a thoroughly satisfactory situation (IMHO) if a single standard, such as MobiPocket, came to dominate through simple dominance of the market, as Apple has done for music. A def facto standard is just as much as standard as a de jure one, after all.

Hopefully Amazon will put its weight behind eBooks - eg a big button 'Want it now?' or whatever, as well as promoting the general advantages of eBooks over pBooks for many types of book.

Amazon have, of course, bought MobiPocket - that's got to be a good sign. They (Amazon) have huge "clout" in the book distribution market. They are in a perfect position to put pressure on publishers to release eBooks. I'd be perfectly happy if MobiPocket were to become the de facto eBook standard - it's in a dominant position already.

[petermillard]

Originally Posted by andym

...If the reader sold at $100 and read all of the available formats (or at least the basics - pdf, mobipocket, html, text, rtf, Word) and has some pda functionality - well I might be interested.

If it could handle those formats and was a supported device (I'm also in the UK) I'd happily pay full price for it, even unseen!

I don't know whether the future is a super-gizmo that doubles as a phone, MP3 player, video player, GPS and eReader, or separate devices for all or some of these functions - probably a combination of the two.

I think convergence is inevitable (if the functions can be built-in cheaply enough - try buying a digital watch without a stopwatch, countdown timer, split lap timer, alarm etc.. etc..) though personally I'd want a book reader principally to be just that - the other things may be handy to have available, but they wouldn't be the prime reason to purchase; mind you, I bought my mobile phone specifically because it has a decent camera, and I dump my address book contents into my iPod when I go on holiday, so I'm not totally immune to the concept!

Then again, we're all different...

I think the mobipocket is a great piece of software ( the look up and annotation facilities for example are just really slick)...

Never knew they existed, and I've no idea what I'd do with them, personally!

Perhaps what we'll see is an inevitable convergence of the functions of the reader devices, but a divergence of the markets for eBooks; clearly the needs of the needs and requirements of the 'current fiction' reader (that's a person, not a device) are different from that of the 'technical manual' readers, who are different again from the 'educational' reader, the 'medical' reader etc.. etc..

Interesting times ahead.

Cheers, Pete.

[Lemurion]

I think Baen's webscription format has the best implementation of a low friction model for ebook sales.

First, they price it right. Any given ebook can and usually does have up to four price points. The early bird gets it for $15.00, in e-ARC format before the paper edition is released. Once the paper edition is released the new book can be bought for about $6 as an individual purchase, regardless of whether it's a hardcover or paperback release. It also comes in that month's webscriptions bundle. That's $15.00 for a full month's releases. Yes there's overlap if you buy multiple months, but you're still paying less than the price of a single hardcover for at least two or three brand new books. Finally, a lot of books end up in the Free Library, at which point they become free. This stage can take a year or more, but even so, it's a great deal. Combining the idea that an ebook is worth less to a buyer than a paperback with time-sensitive pricing has worked for them. Baen makes more from ebooks than they do from Canada.

Second, they provide the books in multiple formats without DRM. This lets you read them on whatever device or in whatever form you want. It also means that if they did go out of business, you could still convert the format to something readable as device technology changed.

They're beginning to test the waters with other publishers. It will be interesting to see how things work going forwards. Right now, they and Fictionwise are the only places that get my e-fiction money.

[jasonkchapman]

Originally Posted by mogui

For those of you back home, I notice a trend. Many developers are selling "miniature" housing; that is, homes which are maybe 600 square feet or less.

I guess it's all in your perspective. I know folks in New York who would kill for 600sf. I cure them by showing them pictures of the apartment my Dad stayed in when he was in Tokyo.

[jasonkchapman]

Originally Posted by petermillard

One of the things I've found telling about this thread (and others before it) is that even here on MobileRead, amongst people who 'get' the whole ebook concept, we can't actually agree on what features we want for the concept to reach critical mass - or rather, perhaps, everybody's ideal feature set is different.

To some extent, I see that as a good thing. It lets the market make the decision. The more routes between content providers and content consumers, the better.

Historically, one company comes up with a breakaway business plan, other companies see their success and try to outdo them with a different idea, competition ensues, and the consumer gets several options. I think all we're looking for here is that first spray of water through the dike. Once someone shows that there's money to be made, others will follow.

But publishers are a backward lot. They'll grasp at any excuse to stay mired in the 19th century. The only reason Baen's success hasn't had a greater influence on the publishing industry is that Big Publishing can run to the excuse that "That's just genre. Those people will read anything. It will never work with real books." Tor hasn't been hesitant in following Baen into e-publishing, it's parent behemoth Holtbrinck has.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

(Boy... your internet connection goes out for an evening, and look at what you miss...)

Some quick, first thing in the morning thoughts after reading what has been discussed-

I think many of you are basing e-books' success on the dedicated readers, and thinking that PDAs and Smartphones are just too small to enjoy e-books. Remember, there are plenty of people (me included) who can read on the smaller devices all day, and are happy to do so. The PDA's Cleartype setting made that possible for me, for instance. So an investment of $300 or more is not required, just to get into e-books.

One of e-books' greatest strengths is that it can be read on many electronic devices, many of which may already be in your pocket, and it's up to the user (should've added that to my earlier list, too.)

Enticing commuters with electronic papers and newsfeeds is another good one for the list. I've read with my PDA on the subway. And frankly, I couldn't care less what other people think of that... I'm too busy reading!

Finally, publishers may be slow to adopt, but they are businesspeople. When they clearly see the demand for e-books, and the profit that can be made from it, they'll come around. The public has to provide the demand, and they'll have to figure out how to profit.

We are covering a lot of good ground, here. Unfortunately, none of it is leaving this forum. There are still lots of people who don't know e-books exist... don't know that they might be carrying e-book readers in their pockets... or that there are other readers they can try. How do we spread the word?

[blunty]

The Friction from a publishers point of view is:
The number of formats you have to cater for.
The platform dependance, most pbooks in large publishers are designed and created on Macintosh yet all the ebook conversion tools are purely PC.
There is also an issue that I have not seen mentioned much of different ownership by country. A UK publisher will not necessarily have the right to sell in the US. This needs sorting before ebooks can take off, or the 'big boys' lawyers will be chasing the smaller publisher for an ebook bought online in a country they don't hold the rights for.
I also don't think publishers are moving slowly to hold the power but we are all companies who have to make a profit to exist and if a particular market is not seen as profitable then little or no resources will be allocated to it.
Publishers don't yet see the point in spending money repurposing existing files when it is not easy or likely to make money.
And when you read forums like this where the majority seem to think that ebooks should be supplied free, or nearly, with no copyright protection for the author or publisher it is not entirely surprising there is reluctance.
When Steve says "stock some ereaders", Sony don't sell theirs in the UK at all.

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by blunty

There is also an issue that I have not seen mentioned much of different ownership by country. A UK publisher will not necessarily have the right to sell in the US. This needs sorting before ebooks can take off, or the 'big boys' lawyers will be chasing the smaller publisher for an ebook bought online in a country they don't hold the rights for.

But that doesn't appear to be an issue for online selling.

You and I, in the UK, can go to "amazon.com" and buy any book we wish from an American publisher. Someone in the US can buy from "amazon.co.uk". "Fictionwise", "Mobipocket", etc, will happily sell you an e-Book no matter where in the world you're located.

[Kilarney]

Originally Posted by petermillard

Why? A book is a book; if it's a book I really want to read, I'll pay the asking price for it. I may have a quick hunt around to see if I can pick it up cheaper elsewhere, but if I want it I'll buy it. If it was available as an ebook, and I didn't want a hard copy for posterity, then I'd happily buy that at the asking price - who wouldn't?

I wouldn't, for a couple of reasons:
1) An E-book reader costs money. Your eyeballs don't. I'd want to recoup some of the cost of a reader, so paying full-price for an ebook would not entice me to buy a reader. (Not that the publisher cares.)

2) A tangible book is mine to keep. I can pass it on to my kids someday. I can go back and reread it 50 years from now. A DRMed ebook is essentially a lease. Therefore, it is worth less to me.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

blunty,
All good points. And I didn't know pBooks were generally created on Macs (tho I'm not surprised). Ironic, that now Mac userss feel left out by e-books, isn't it?

The rights issue is obviously a thorny one, demanding either a universally-accepted international rights agreement (shyeah, right) or some sort of access restriction system that will identify your location based on your IP address, deny certain countries and sell to others according to their negotiated rights agreement. The alternative is no system (I have the right to sell, you have the right to buy), and the sea-change that the internet has brought to international commerce could influence that.

The publishers have a right to be concerned about profits... e-books are likely to radically change their profit margins, and their very way of doing business, and many of them simply don't want to deal with it. They'll either wait until another company works out a business plan, and adopt it as best they can... stay the course, and probably downsize... or go under. That's evolution, and it applies in business as well as life.

Yes, if Sony wants to sell readers, they need to stock them... everywhere. And advertise and promote them, for heavens' sake.