Conspiracy Theory on Kindle being Sold Out

markbot · 11-22-2007, 12:20 AM

My thoery is that the Kindle isn't really sold out....but rather they didn't feel like paying for the 2 day shipping. So what they are doing is shipping it ground to local distribution centers....and then sending it in "2 days" after it goes in stock. This will save them a couple of million dollars.

SanAntone · 11-22-2007, 12:31 AM

Are you serious?

Robert Marquard · 11-22-2007, 12:37 AM

The problem is probably the eInk screen. Not enough screens get produced so simply not enough Kindle devices are available.

Roy White · 11-22-2007, 12:39 AM

I think.. The guys on the grassy knoll... Wait for it... Bought them all. And are waiting for the economy to collapse becasue of this dastardly deed ushering in a new world order in which Gerbils rule the world!

Alisa · 11-22-2007, 01:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by markbot

My thoery is that the Kindle isn't really sold out....but rather they didn't feel like paying for the 2 day shipping. So what they are doing is shipping it ground to local distribution centers....and then sending it in "2 days" after it goes in stock. This will save them a couple of million dollars.

I think more likely they just didn't think this many would sell so quickly.

Charbax · 11-22-2007, 02:57 AM

But they aren't saying how many. That is kind of funny of Amazon to make a press release saying the Kindle was sold out in 5 hours and then not saying how many units that amounts to.

I don't think it was many thousands of units, probably max a few tens of thousands of units I would guess.

And yeah, it's probably hard for PVI in Taiwan to keep up with the E-Ink screen production no matter how much money Amazon is paying them upfront. The factories making those E-Ink screens probably simply aren't big enough to produce E-Ink screens in quantities of millions, probably that current factories have a capacity limit of some hundred thousands a year. But also probably that in preparation for the release of the Kindle, that in Taiwan, PVI has invested whatever hundreds of millions required to ramp up the production, probably all paid for in advance by Amazon, Philips, Sony and some others..

I'm just guessing here, but I think in terms of risk taking and physical capacity to mass produce, the Kindle production has to be gradually ramped up. A bit like the OLPC XO computer also. For that computer for example, first weeks mass production capacity is only something like 40 thousand units per month, then it can gradually jump to 400 thousand units per month. Simply something to do with even the largest screen factories in the world, cannot just jump start mass production of new technologies from day one. Cause a full capacity specialized factory to produce those new kinds of screens such as the XO screen and E-Ink screens costs billions to make. So unless Amazon believed so much in the Kindle months in advance to pay in advance the construction of those specialized factories to have a full production capacity in time for Christmas, then the only thing to work would be gradual ramp up of production adjusted after the initial market demand, and it probably has to take at the minimum a few weeks for a new production cycle to result in new batches of shipped products.

I'm totally guessing here, but possibly Amazon is not going to satisfy all the demand for Christmas (it will be sold out), but are counting on large demand up till Christmas to make them confident about ramping up production to maximum capacity to be delivered after Christmas.

TadW · 11-22-2007, 03:31 AM

I think it was similar with the other E Ink reader when they came out. The first Sony Reader (PRS-500) was sold out in a couple of hours (if I remember correctly). And orders for the Bookeen Cybook Gen3 have also been delayed.

SanAntone · 11-22-2007, 08:07 AM

Companies hold sales numbers pretty close to the vest on innovative new products. Look at Sony...as far as I know they haven't released any sales numbers for the Reader.

igorsk · 11-22-2007, 08:16 AM

I have a number for iLiad:

Quote:

...the UK distributor for Dutch e-reader vendor Irex estimates that at most, 10,000 units of its iLiad device have been sold worldwide.

From http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology...2/news.gadgets

tsgreer · 11-22-2007, 10:28 AM

I also think it may have something to do with the Kindle being on the cover of Newsweek, on Good Morning America, NPR, CBS News, etc. I never saw this sort of advertising blitz for the Sony Reader and it sold out quick too. So I'm not really surprised that the Kindle sold out so fast.

To be honest, I am surprised that I got one already. I am usually the one that misses out on these sort of things...

RWood · 11-22-2007, 11:05 AM

Most likely they have a staged delivery system from China of so many units per shipment/week. They had a backlog/buildup prior to launch. They delay they first posted was less than a week until more were available.

It just sold well.

Alisa · 11-22-2007, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RWood

Most likely they have a staged delivery system from China of so many units per shipment/week. They had a backlog/buildup prior to launch. They delay they first posted was less than a week until more were available.

It just sold well.

That's my thought. Hence they can replenish quickly. It doesn't help that they've adopted a pretty laborious packout concept, too. Each one has to be individually loaded with personalizing information. I don't know what their warehouse automation looks like but that sounds like rather a new routine.

nekokami · 11-22-2007, 12:36 PM

Wouldn't you think they'd handle that by scanning a barcode with the serial number and matching to the customer's order at the time of shipping, so the information would be picked up by the Whispernet when the unit is turned on?

Alisa · 11-22-2007, 12:44 PM

Yes which is more than they have to do with other items they pack and ship. If I order a book, they grab that book and throw it in a box. They don't have to grab a specific copy of it.

Nate the great · 11-22-2007, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alisa

That's my thought. Hence they can replenish quickly. It doesn't help that they've adopted a pretty laborious packout concept, too. Each one has to be individually loaded with personalizing information. I don't know what their warehouse automation looks like but that sounds like rather a new routine.

From what I got with mine, I don't think you are correct.

The fancy white box came in a protective cardboard sleeve. On the bottom of the box was the SN of my device. he most likely way they did it was scan the shipping slip, scan the box, and place both in shipping box. I doubt that the info was loaded directly. It was probably sent over the Whispernet.

11-22-2007, 12:20 AM	#1
markbot Guru Posts: 612 Karma: 7511929 Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: New York, NY Device: Amazon Kindle Paperwhite 2	Conspiracy Theory on Kindle being Sold Out My thoery is that the Kindle isn't really sold out....but rather they didn't feel like paying for the 2 day shipping. So what they are doing is shipping it ground to local distribution centers....and then sending it in "2 days" after it goes in stock. This will save them a couple of million dollars.

11-22-2007, 02:57 AM	#6
Charbax Addict Posts: 203 Karma: 550683 Join Date: Mar 2007	But they aren't saying how many. That is kind of funny of Amazon to make a press release saying the Kindle was sold out in 5 hours and then not saying how many units that amounts to. I don't think it was many thousands of units, probably max a few tens of thousands of units I would guess. And yeah, it's probably hard for PVI in Taiwan to keep up with the E-Ink screen production no matter how much money Amazon is paying them upfront. The factories making those E-Ink screens probably simply aren't big enough to produce E-Ink screens in quantities of millions, probably that current factories have a capacity limit of some hundred thousands a year. But also probably that in preparation for the release of the Kindle, that in Taiwan, PVI has invested whatever hundreds of millions required to ramp up the production, probably all paid for in advance by Amazon, Philips, Sony and some others.. I'm just guessing here, but I think in terms of risk taking and physical capacity to mass produce, the Kindle production has to be gradually ramped up. A bit like the OLPC XO computer also. For that computer for example, first weeks mass production capacity is only something like 40 thousand units per month, then it can gradually jump to 400 thousand units per month. Simply something to do with even the largest screen factories in the world, cannot just jump start mass production of new technologies from day one. Cause a full capacity specialized factory to produce those new kinds of screens such as the XO screen and E-Ink screens costs billions to make. So unless Amazon believed so much in the Kindle months in advance to pay in advance the construction of those specialized factories to have a full production capacity in time for Christmas, then the only thing to work would be gradual ramp up of production adjusted after the initial market demand, and it probably has to take at the minimum a few weeks for a new production cycle to result in new batches of shipped products. I'm totally guessing here, but possibly Amazon is not going to satisfy all the demand for Christmas (it will be sold out), but are counting on large demand up till Christmas to make them confident about ramping up production to maximum capacity to be delivered after Christmas. Last edited by Charbax; 11-22-2007 at 03:08 AM.

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11-22-2007, 12:31 AM	#2
SanAntone Connoisseur Posts: 73 Karma: 34 Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Texas! Device: Kindle Oasis 2 and Scribe	Are you serious?

11-22-2007, 12:37 AM	#3
Robert Marquard Delphi-Guy Posts: 285 Karma: 1151 Join Date: May 2006 Location: Berlin, Germany Device: iLiad, Palm T3	The problem is probably the eInk screen. Not enough screens get produced so simply not enough Kindle devices are available.

11-22-2007, 12:39 AM	#4
Roy White Evangelist Posts: 482 Karma: 7696 Join Date: May 2007 Location: Turner, Oregon Device: Sony Reader	I think.. The guys on the grassy knoll... Wait for it... Bought them all. And are waiting for the economy to collapse becasue of this dastardly deed ushering in a new world order in which Gerbils rule the world!

11-22-2007, 03:31 AM	#7
TadW Uebermensch Posts: 2,583 Karma: 1094606 Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Italy Device: Kindle	I think it was similar with the other E Ink reader when they came out. The first Sony Reader (PRS-500) was sold out in a couple of hours (if I remember correctly). And orders for the Bookeen Cybook Gen3 have also been delayed.

11-22-2007, 08:07 AM	#8
SanAntone Connoisseur Posts: 73 Karma: 34 Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Texas! Device: Kindle Oasis 2 and Scribe	Companies hold sales numbers pretty close to the vest on innovative new products. Look at Sony...as far as I know they haven't released any sales numbers for the Reader.

11-22-2007, 10:28 AM	#10
tsgreer Lovin' the e-book life... Posts: 633 Karma: 2509 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Colorado Device: Ebookwise 1150, Sony PRS-505, Amazon Kindle, BeBook (with OpenInkpot)	I also think it may have something to do with the Kindle being on the cover of Newsweek, on Good Morning America, NPR, CBS News, etc. I never saw this sort of advertising blitz for the Sony Reader and it sold out quick too. So I'm not really surprised that the Kindle sold out so fast. To be honest, I am surprised that I got one already. I am usually the one that misses out on these sort of things...

11-22-2007, 11:05 AM	#11
RWood Technogeezer Posts: 7,233 Karma: 1601464 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Virginia, USA Device: Sony PRS-500	Most likely they have a staged delivery system from China of so many units per shipment/week. They had a backlog/buildup prior to launch. They delay they first posted was less than a week until more were available. It just sold well.

11-22-2007, 12:36 PM	#13
nekokami fruminous edugeek Posts: 6,745 Karma: 551260 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Northeast US Device: iPad, eBw 1150	Wouldn't you think they'd handle that by scanning a barcode with the serial number and matching to the customer's order at the time of shipping, so the information would be picked up by the Whispernet when the unit is turned on?

11-22-2007, 12:44 PM	#14
Alisa Gadget Geek Posts: 2,324 Karma: 22221 Join Date: Aug 2007 Device: Paperwhite, Kindle 3 (retired), Skindle 1.2 (retired)	Yes which is more than they have to do with other items they pack and ship. If I order a book, they grab that book and throw it in a box. They don't have to grab a specific copy of it.

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