Could this be the last year for the big chains?

[DavidI]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

Perhaps in the next few years. I suspect the Nook business may survive in some form.

However, the article places far too much emphasis on ebooks. The chain's big problems are also due to Internet sales, Walmart and other big box store sales, and the recession.

I'd like to agree with Kali's point about the big box stores impact on the chain bookstores. Most publishers make their money on just a few massive selling titles each year and now that Walmart, et. al. are selling these for $10 or so the chains can't make the money they used to make.

On the other end of the scale is the huge number of smaller titles not carried by Walmart, et. al., but that's carried by Amazon. Once again the chain bookstores can't compete on price (or selection), and thus can't make the money they used to make.

I remember when Amazon first started selling on the web, and B&N and Borders both made the decision to downplay web sales, because they didn't want to cannibalize their in store sales. When they did start selling on the web their stores complained about it too (Borders has franchises).

Where I would disagree with Kali is that I do find the ebook phenomenon very significant. It is my understanding that many of the individuals who bought ebook readers in the last few years are the heavy readers in society. These are the very people that kept the chains in business. I was one of their big customers, and I used to visit my local Borders store (it was the closest chain) about once every week or two. Once I bought a Kindle this visit became maybe two or three times a year. If other ebook readers are like me, this is a significant blow to their bottom lines.

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by DavidI

I'd like to agree with Kali's point about the big box stores impact on the chain bookstores. Most publishers make their money on just a few massive selling titles each year and now that Walmart, et. al. are selling these for $10 or so the chains can't make the money they used to make.

And Walmart and Target are getting squeezed by warehouse stores like CostCo and Sam's Club. Don't expect the smaller titles there: outfits like that buy in huge quantities and expect to sell in huge quantities. If they don't think a title will move in high volume, it won't get ordered.

On the other end of the scale is the huge number of smaller titles not carried by Walmart, et. al., but that's carried by Amazon. Once again the chain bookstores can't compete on price (or selection), and thus can't make the money they used to make.

The independent bookstore is an endangered species. The ones still extant around me all have a specialty niche focus.

I remember when Amazon first started selling on the web, and B&N and Borders both made the decision to downplay web sales, because they didn't want to cannibalize their in store sales. When they did start selling on the web their stores complained about it too (Borders has franchises).

And it's a problem for publishers. They are increasingly pressured to sell directly to the consumer, but have a fundamental conflict with the retailers if they do so. They want to protect their retail partners, so are treading carefully.

Where I would disagree with Kali is that I do find the ebook phenomenon very significant. It is my understanding that many of the individuals who bought ebook readers in the last few years are the heavy readers in society. These are the very people that kept the chains in business. I was one of their big customers, and I used to visit my local Borders store (it was the closest chain) about once every week or two. Once I bought a Kindle this visit became maybe two or three times a year. If other ebook readers are like me, this is a significant blow to their bottom lines.

It is, but it's a reason why Barnes and Noble invested in producing the nook, and Borders has a deal with Kobo. Increasingly, remaining bookstores will sell things that aren't books.

My local Borders is a Borders Bookstore and Cafe, selling coffee, soft drinks and food. A change to make it a Borders Cafe and Bookstore would not at all surprise me. Instead of, "Cone in and buy books, and have coffee and food while you're at it", it may become "Come in and have coffee and food, and buy books while you're at it."

The biggest blow, however, hasn't been the spread of ereaders. There have simply been too many books chasing too few readers for a long time, and book sales over all are down. Ebooks are a contributing factor, and the effects will increase, but the problems affecting book retailing would still be there if ebooks didn't exist.
______
Dennis

[denclock]

I agree with many things said in this post, and now I am going to say my two cents.

There are certain things that impending technology will eventually make certain things obsolete. Keep in mind, there will always be someone who has to be nostalgic, and so therefore there will always be a small niche market for the things that I mention. I am going to make a list, and give some explanation behind my list for each one.

1. Video stores are now an obsolete business model. Of course, there are some Blockbusters, Movie Galleries, and Mom & Pops still left and these will probably slowly bleed themselves to death over the next ten years. Netflix and their business models adaptability, pretty much has put the nail in the coffin for most video stores. Of course at some point we will get another Net Flix type business that will actually become competition for them. One thing that had propped the Video Stores up when Net Flix first came out was the instant gratification of having that item in you hand immediately, now for a low monthly price you can get many movies, and TV series streamed to you almost instantly. Why would you go pay $3-4 and gas to rent a movie for one night, when you can stream instantly what you want when you want it, Net Flix doesn't close. I know that Blockbuster is attempting to mimic that now, but I think that they might be a little late in the game for that. I know that Net Flix isn't perfect and the technology isn't quite there yet, but it will be in a couple of years.

Big Chain B&M bookstores are going to become a thing of the past, once the online retailers, and publishers get their heads out of their butts, and start pricing the books that people want at a reasonable price point. Right now, I don't see how anyone justifies charging even $10 for an e-book, there is almost no production cost involved in an e-book (other than marketing, writers fees, and editing cost), but rather they are as much as they are so that the publishers and the book stores can bankroll some to the cost that they are losing by actually publishing a large number of books, which isn't cheap by any means. Once again, there is a long way too go before e-readers, and tablets are really the best than they can be (I think that they should be book scented for instance) because for avid readers like myself, I miss somethings about p-books, but once I got use to my e-reader, I haven't looked back, e-readers, at least for me are truly way more convenient, I can carry 5,000 books with me and they just weigh seven ounces, where as if they were real hard back books, I might be able to comfortably in a back pack carry around, maybe six. Again, the technology isn't here yet to get a large percentage of people to completely drop p-books, and for me they are a nice tie-in as part of home furnishings, and it may not be e-readers or tablets that people start using, but, maybe something that is in development or something that hasn't be thought of yet,though, this is where our technology and culture is leading us.

Records, Cd's, Tapes, etc... well on this one as to not beat a dead horse, most people know that MP3 and soon to be FLAC or some other lossless file is where what we listen to is heading.

It should be noted that comics are also going to take a hit in publishing, but probably not as to the severe amount that the other items listed here are going to be, because that is already a pretty small niche market that many people will continue to buy print copies, holding on to the hope that one day it will be valuable.

The things that many of the companies that fail, they had like of vision, and didn't won't to risk on an unproven technology as a reliable income stream or were just to set in their ways, and the ones that are going to succeed, generally said where is the video, book, and music market going to be, where is the technology going to be, where can we get ahead of our bigger and more seasoned competitors.

Also, these technologies could be a positive thing for many small publishers, and musicians, and film companies, because they can charge less, and make more off of their product, and with less cost you open yourself up to more people in the market, so therefore more customers, and much more money, if they are willing to change when the next curve comes.

Hopefully, this is coherent, presents what point I was trying to make, and isn't chocked full of grammatical errors(It is late, and I am tired).

[DMcCunney]

Originally Posted by denclock

1. Video stores are now an obsolete business model. Of course, there are some Blockbusters, Movie Galleries, and Mom & Pops still left and these will probably slowly bleed themselves to death over the next ten years

Tell that to the Bollywood video place a couple of blocks from me, featuring Indian movies in Hindi, Tamil, Gujarti and other languages of that sub-continent. Go find them on Netflix.

Netflix and their business models adaptability, pretty much has put the nail in the coffin for most video stores.

Most, but not all. Netflix assumes broadband. There are still places where that's not pervasive.

Big Chain B&M bookstores are going to become a thing of the past, once the online retailers, and publishers get their heads out of their butts, and start pricing the books that people want at a reasonable price point. Right now, I don't see how anyone justifies charging even $10 for an e-book, there is almost no production cost involved in an e-book (other than marketing, writers fees, and editing cost), but rather they are as much as they are so that the publishers and the book stores can bankroll some to the cost that they are losing by actually publishing a large number of books, which isn't cheap by any means.

Paper books aren't going away any time soon, but how much do you believe is saved by dropping the print/bind/warehouse/distribute stages?

It should be noted that comics are also going to take a hit in publishing, but probably not as to the severe amount that the other items listed here are going to be, because that is already a pretty small niche market that many people will continue to buy print copies, holding on to the hope that one day it will be valuable.

Comics won't be hurt that badly because the printed books aren't where the real money is. The money comes from licensing the properties for films. Marvel probably made more on the first Spiderman movie than it did on the entire run of printed comics since the creation of the character.
______
Dennis

[tubemonkey]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

Most, but not all. Netflix assumes broadband. There are still places where that's not pervasive.

That's where mom and pop stores come in.

[Ken Stuart]

Originally Posted by DMcCunney

Most, but not all. Netflix assumes broadband. There are still places where that's not pervasive.

Paper books aren't going away any time soon, but how much do you believe is saved by dropping the print/bind/warehouse/distribute stages?

You need to look at what has happened recently:

- VHS is over and DVD is on the decline.

- Printed newspapers and printed magazines are dying at a rapid rate (there is even a web site that lists dead magazines).

- Harry Potter just delayed the death of the book, at least in terms of the masses. Perhaps the "novel to read while waiting for the plane at the airport" will survive for some time.

- The music industry has reversed the trend from the 50s and to the 70s, and is now individual songs rather than albums.

- Widescreen HD TVs are now the norm and are available for even $99.

and the biggest factor of the last 20 years is cellphones.

Even working class people in Africa who make a tiny fraction of our income have cell phones.

Eventually all smartphone features will trickle down to average cell phones. Already many people use their phone as their music player.

I can see the Galaxy Tab form factor becoming the dominant device for media 5-10 years from now.

[denclock]

Originally Posted by Ken Stuart

You need to look at what has happened recently:

- VHS is over and DVD is on the decline.

- Printed newspapers and printed magazines are dying at a rapid rate (there is even a web site that lists dead magazines).

- Harry Potter just delayed the death of the book, at least in terms of the masses. Perhaps the "novel to read while waiting for the plane at the airport" will survive for some time.

- The music industry has reversed the trend from the 50s and to the 70s, and is now individual songs rather than albums.

- Widescreen HD TVs are now the norm and are available for even $99.

and the biggest factor of the last 20 years is cellphones.

Even working class people in Africa who make a tiny fraction of our income have cell phones.

Eventually all smartphone features will trickle down to average cell phones. Already many people use their phone as their music player.

I can see the Galaxy Tab form factor becoming the dominant device for media 5-10 years from now.

Your Harry Potter point, made me think about something I should put have put in my original post. Teenagers are the ones that many companies are staying afloat on (i.e. Harry Potter, Twilight, True Blood series books by Charlaine Harris (I realize they aren't age appropriate for teens, but that didn't stop me from reading outside my age range when I was a teen), and many music artist that don't have any real talent, but are pushed on early teens and in some cases age 8 and up. These teens and kids are still use to paper books and Cd's and DVDs and are a major part what is keeping many of the industries we are talking about afloat, but what happens when the babies being born now, approach teenage years, and aren't use to seeing Cd's, DVDs, and are use to listening to MP3s and looking at e-books, because many adults my age that are new parents are using MP3's , e-book's, and streamed TV shows/movies and therefore that will trickle down to the children?

[mjhudston]

Originally Posted by HarryT

Borders have already gone bust in the UK.

Can't see Waterstones (our dominant bookshop chain) going anywhere, though. Their business seems to be booming (and they sell lots of different brands of eBook reader).

But waterstones was supported by Amazon for many years, hasn't that now stopped?

[elcreative]

????? What, please explain....

Originally Posted by mjhudston

But waterstones was supported by Amazon for many years, hasn't that now stopped?

[shanghaichica]

I don't buy paperback books anymore but I still like the idea of going into them and I still do. I love spending hours in there just browsing, only these days I force myself not to buy anything. I take down the names of books and then check online. I would be sad to see the big book stores go.

[GA Russell]

Originally Posted by shanghaichica

I don't buy paperback books anymore but I still like the idea of going into them and I still do. I love spending hours in there just browsing, only these days I force myself not to buy anything. I take down the names of books and then check online. I would be sad to see the big book stores go.

[Ravensknight]

Originally Posted by shanghaichica

I don't buy paperback books anymore but I still like the idea of going into them and I still do. I love spending hours in there just browsing, only these days I force myself not to buy anything. I take down the names of books and then check online. I would be sad to see the big book stores go.

and THAT is why they're going to continue to dry up and die...

[Sil_liS]

Originally Posted by shanghaichica

I don't buy paperback books anymore but I still like the idea of going into them and I still do. I love spending hours in there just browsing, only these days I force myself not to buy anything. I take down the names of books and then check online. I would be sad to see the big book stores go.

You can do the same in a library.

[Xanthe]

This is the type of thing that will sink Borders:

I ordered a DVD on 12/03 - delivery time was supposed to be 2-8 days. FedEx in Pennsylvania received it on the 8th -there's five days right there. Now, I live in NJ, right next to PA, that facility is about 70 miles away from me. I could have day-tripped to the FedEx site. My DVD was shipped by FedEx to Dallas TX. From there it went to Martinsburg WV. From there they sent it to the huge FedEx facility that is in my town (why it didn't go there right from PA is a mystery to me). And then the topper is, this was a FedEx "SmartPost", which means that THEY don't deliver it to my home, they sent it to MY LOCAL POST OFFICE for them to deliver it to me. My post office got it to me the day after they received it - I received it 12/17.

It took 9 days for that package to travel from PA to me. Now, think of all the people that handled it and their salaries, all the diesel and jet fuel that was expended flying that item around the country. And know that the price of that item was $2.99 with free shipping.

Perhaps in some strange, unknown way, it is cost-effective for them to ship things that way. All I know, it that the aggravation factor was so high that I'm not going to order anything other than an ebook online from them anymore.

I contacted both Borders and FedEx about this, and I just got generic responses that didn't address the issue.

[xroads]

You are correct. It is the heavy readers who buy ereaders. Once an ereader is purchased you are certainly going to fill it with books. And you don't need to go the store to buy them. Quite honestly, outside of the grocery store and gas station, I make all of my purchases, not just books, on the internet now. The convenience is just too irresistible.