A serious topic

[Xenophon]

Moejoe wrote (in part):

I'm not a fan of most of what Baen puts out, but...

Given the books you've mentioned liking in other threads, I suggest that you check out their two Cordwainer Smith omnibus volumes. Great writing, great imagery, good old stuff re-issued for us to enjoy.

Xenophon

[Xenophon]

Oh yeah, I just realized that I left out an important part of my point above when writing about "ebooks at less-than-paperback prices." I meant to say that the economics seen by Baen and Webscriptions suggest that we won't see eBooks at drastically lower prices unless and until unit sales increase very dramatically. In order to cut prices much below the $6.00 (q. 1) or $3.40 (net of bundles) they'd have to be selling enough copies to make the very low marginal cost of bits kick in big-time. That'd probably require a 10x increase in eBook sales (this is my rough guesstimate, no insider knowledge involved).

Even with such a large increase in sales, I sincerely doubt that there's room to drop prices as much as another factor-of-two. The main expense remaining to be squeezed out is the fixed costs for the publisher. "Squeezed out" here really means "made insignificant by increasing sales volume." And those fixed costs don't represent anything near 1/2 of the total cost. So earlier posters who suggested prices like $1.99 per book and $0.99 per book are likely to be disappointed.

Xenophon


Xenophon

[Sweetpea]

You can add DRM to books. But people (being people) will look for ways to circumvent that DRM.

You can decide not to electronify your book. But people (again, being people) will scan that book themselves.

Both are ways to "protect" your book from being distributed without you getting your share of the sale.

Neither of those two work. I think we'll have to wait a generation before the authors are willing to put their books DRM-free in shops. I think the first order of business would be to put all those out-of-print books in an electronic form (and I'm not talking about . Second to put all books in an electronic form.

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by Xenophon

Moejoe wrote (in part):

Given the books you've mentioned liking in other threads, I suggest that you check out their two Cordwainer Smith omnibus volumes. Great writing, great imagery, good old stuff re-issued for us to enjoy.

Xenophon

Will look into them, thanks for the recommendation

[Elsi]

Originally Posted by HarryT

That's called "Social DRM", Elsi. I personally see no harm in it, but there are those who assert that it violates their "right to privacy".

If a pirated copy of a book contains information identifying the person who downloaded it, then either:
* The person uploaded it in violation of copyright and license
* The files were stolen from their computer and uploaded

I am one who contends that a crook has no right of privacy for the illegal act. So in the first case, there should be no right of privacy asserted at all. In the second case, the original purchaser is now a victim of a crime. While it would be inappropriate for his identity to be made public, his right to privacy should not trump the right of the rights-holder to pursue and prosecute whomever pirated the files.

As in all aspects of life, it's an issue of balancing the rights of the various "interested parties".

[pshrynk]

Of all the schemes I've heard to date the "social DRM" is the one that would seem to have the best hope of working within the whole idea of havnigDRM as we know it. I wouldn't give a fig if my books had a tag identifying me. I wouldn't be giving them away.

However, there may be other ways of ensuring that the revenue stream for writing continues to flow in the proper direction. What other ways are there to make this happen?

[pshrynk]

So, what does everyon think the future will look like? Independent authors , self-publishing like Steve Jordan and Richard Herley? Or Big Pub continuing to have a hold on everything with better DRM schema that aren't as onerous?

(I think we are all aware that current DRM schema just won't work.)

[Sweetpea]

Originally Posted by pshrynk

So, what does everyon think the future will look like? Independent authors , self-publishing like Steve Jordan and Richard Herley? Or Big Pub continuing to have a hold on everything with better DRM schema that aren't as onerous?

(I think we are all aware that current DRM schema just won't work.)

I think a combination of the two.

You will have the people that aren't afraid to self-publish their work and the big publishers that will do the work for those that don't (or say they can't) do it themselves.

You can always sell your stuff yourself, but some people just find that tedious work and rather continue making the stuff they want to sell. Selling your stuff isn't just making a page on the internet where you put your wares. You must also take care of your money business (taxes, and other legal stuff)

And, as I doubt paper books will disappear fast, I think you'll still have to work by way of a publisher if you want your paper books in the major bookstores.

[pshrynk]

Maybe what is needed is an e-pub business plan where authors can put their books up in a coop fashion, with a small percentage of sales going to the coop to cover expenses. Of course, this is how publishing houses got started way back in the day.

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by pshrynk

So, what does everyon think the future will look like? Independent authors , self-publishing like Steve Jordan and Richard Herley? Or Big Pub continuing to have a hold on everything with better DRM schema that aren't as onerous?

(I think we are all aware that current DRM schema just won't work.)

Publishers will be around for awhile, but I see them going into smaller divisions and targeting a more narrowly defined section of the market in each instance. Meanwhile the indie authors will form allegiances with each other and provide their own network of influence. You might see bands of science-fiction authors, horror novelists, crime writers each focusing their energies towards their particular fans. Or you might see 'genre' completely erased as more and more people write 'out-of-market'.

One thing is for sure, more and more authors will ignore the traditional routes now they're learning that they don't get such a good deal after all. I mean, come on, 7-15% royalties only after you've earned your advance back? Then an agent takes a cut? Who'd want to get into that business?

[RickyMaveety]

Originally Posted by pshrynk

Yet another aspect of the question. What does it cost to produce an ebook? A lot of debate has been tossed out that "proves" that it is either just as much as a pbook or next to nothing. Some education by publishers could go a long way.

I do know that a fair amount goes into promotion/advertising. I'm assuming that those costs would be borne equally by ebooks and pbooks.

However, there are large amounts of inventory returns that the publisher has to eat that are non-existent with ebooks.

I doubt that the 99 cent model would work for ebooks only because .... well, it works on a per song basis for the music industry, but then you have to consider that it relates to a per album cost of roughly $20. So, the music publisher doesn't really lose anything by selling the album piecemeal, and it's cost effective for the consumer (compared to the time involved in pirating one song).

To do that for books would involve selling them by the chapter or by the section ... might work, but probably not. However, even given promotional costs, the price of ebooks should be much lower than their p siblings.

As for promotion, I doubt that the publishing houses will ever completely die away if only because they do have the promotional punch to make a book or a series of books a major success. If the Harry Potter books had just been self published, they never would have taken off as fast, if at all. The readers ultimately make the book a hit (or miss), but it's the hype that kick starts it. And you've got to have some serious money to back the hype machine.

[krisk]

How are the hesitant authors that feel their books aren't very good to be encouraged? I am going to assume that the truly awful ones will have immediate feedback, but I worry about the others.

[pshrynk]

A side effect of the open access publishing would be that anyone could get work out there and get feedback. Another side effect is that there would not be readily available editing, so the feedback might be brutal.

[krisk]

I am certain of the feedback. Especially as I said for the dreck that some people try to get published. My concern is the writers without a lot of confidence that need a publisher type of person to puch/promote them.

[pshrynk]

Ah. Well, that's why I think an Authors' Coop might have some benefit. But don't ask me how it would be run, because I'm not a really good IT type. Something to do with the interwebs, I'm pretty certain, but that would be the details that would be hammered out by folks smarter than I.

So, the idea would be, join a coop, submit your work, get feedback from other members, get to the point of "publishing", have the coop put out the PR in it's blog, make tons of money and retire at 40. Or something like that.