Google's Android is Eating Apple's Lunch

[Prestidigitweeze]

Originally Posted by HappyMartin

Think I was the only one to mention the lack of FireWire on the new retina laptops. Not sure why you would assume because the lack of FireWire was only mentioned now that it was only noticed now. I must have cancelled my retina order at least 4 months ago.

HM:

Since I wasn't literally responding to every MR member, my comment was far from user-history-specific. People on MR was synecdoche for trending MR responses on this thread -- i.e., for about the past twenty posts.

Besides, I wrote about the first Ivy MBPs and the disinclusion of FW at least a year ago, but I'm sure I wasn't the first because, if we looked, we'd find that at least one other member wrote about it before that.

Chronologies aside, you and I and most of the music industry are in worse shape than we ever needed to be.

The modernist idea that a product is worthless unless it innovates is flawed, as the nightmare monotonies of Robert Moses's architectural overlay have taught New York. There was no reason to level the original Penn Station and replace it with a rat warren except that the warren was new.

It's precisely because music and film production require stability that the model doesn't work when it comes to professionals. The product that is worthwhile for us is modern enough not to be underpowered or hermetic, tested and built to be solid, and open enough to be flexible. Those who complain that Apple is insufficiently innovative aren't seeing the real problem for pro media users.

The problem is that Apple used to offer hardware/software integration on an unusual level and it was the integration in a flakier age that professionals bought. Now Apple is the Nintendo of computers and can't go to market without at least one gimmick which serves to distract and seemingly disqualify other brands and OSs, even as that same gimmick often limits users to proprietary accessories and formats.

Originally Posted by talaivan

You can mount the firewire disk with thunderbolt and the firewire adapter and then use the Migration Assistant to transfer data.

Oh, how I wish you were right.

The adapter goes from Thunderbolt-to-FW, not the other way around. Users all over the world have been posting about this since first receiving their Thunderbolt MBPs. I was on the phone with tech support a few weeks ago while considering buying one and they eventually admitted that MA doesn't work with the Thunderbolt adapter.

I don't absolutely need MA, but I do need FW. However, I happen to think MA should work on principle. No one is upgrading from a thunderbolt machine, which effectively makes MA worthless until the next iteration of Macs.

[holymadness]

Originally Posted by kennyc

Latest numbers...claim is Apple has lost 14%


http://www.tomshardware.com/news/And...ket,19375.html

"Market share! Market share!" cried the mob. Will it ever learn a new refrain?

Only there’s one little problem with the theory that market share matters most in a platform war. By every imaginable measure and in every way that conceivably matters, it is iOS – not Android – that is winning the platform wars. And it isn’t even close.

A computing platform is made up of any number of attributes. Some examples of those attributes are:

adoption of operating system updates; accessories; advertising revenue; app primacy, quantity, quality and profitability; business adoption, BYOD, commerce; consumer assurance, entrustment and confidence; content revenue; control of the platform; credit card numbers; culture; demographics; developers; ease of use; eCommerce; ecosystem; education adoption; engagement; enterprise adoption; government adoption; in-app commerce; integration; lock-in; loyalty; monetization; profits to developers, content providers and publishers; popularity with teens; re-sale value; reliability; repeat customers, retention; safety; satisfaction; security; shopping; stability; stickiness; store quality; switching costs; trust; usage; video views; web traffic.

In every platform attribute listed, it is iOS – not Android – that is leading and in many cases it is iOS that is dominating.

[...]

This just isn’t that hard. The two basic realities that matter most to a platform are that developers get paid to develop more and better apps and that consumers get incentivized to buy more apps and pay more for those self-same apps.

[...]

Android can continue its unit and user market share dominance without impinging on iOS’ platform dominance because it is developers and dollars that are the only market shares that really matter.

– It is iOS – not Android – that is attracting the third party companies to build products and services on top of their platform.
– It is iOS – not Android – that is becoming more valuable with greater customer lock-in.
– It is iOS – not Android – that developers, content providers, advertisers and eCommerce sites are standardizing around.
– And it is Android – not iOS – that is in danger of having the value of their smaller platform collapse.

Why Android's Market Share is no Threat to Apple's iOS Platform

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by holymadness

"Market share! Market share!" cried the mob. Will it ever learn a new refrain?

They will learn a new refrain about a year from now -- when Apple will also no longer earn the major share of profits. It always starts with a decline in market share.

[holymadness]

I really need to start collecting these quotes. It would be hilarious to do a retrospective someday.

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by holymadness

I really need to start collecting these quotes. It would be hilarious to do a retrospective someday.

We are already laughing about all those statements from last year, when the iPad was over 75%. Don't get me wrong, Apple has performed amazingly well -- but they have only one way to go, down. They can't compete against everybody. Long term the ipad market share will also go down to the iphone level. No more than 20%.

[elcreative]

Originally Posted by kennyc

Latest numbers...claim is Apple has lost 14%


http://www.tomshardware.com/news/And...ket,19375.html

Love the use of "Google's Android Platform." Thought Samsung has a platform, HTC has a platform, Apple has a platform etc but Google has very little platform as yet... it has a free operating system scattered over many individual manufacturers' hardware (many with device to device to software incompatibilities) but hardly a great revenue earner (that may yet change but so far hasn't). And as HM says... market share isn't everything especially when the market expansion is ignored...

Just an example not based on researched data but should show the difference...

Company Z have 69% of a market of 1,000,000 units and the rest is split amongst others - that equals sales of 690,000 units.
Now a year later Company Z now have only 55% of the market but that market now consists of 2,000,000 units so that equals sales of 1,100,000 units so market share has dropped but real, cash earning sales have risen whereas many competitors are buying market share at the expense of making any profit... Company Z shakes in boots and uses some of its cash reserves on research for next great product...

[holymadness]

Originally Posted by HansTWN

We are already laughing about all those statements from last year, when the iPad was over 75%. Don't get me wrong, Apple has performed amazingly well -- but they have only one way to go, down. They can't compete against everybody. Long term the ipad market share will also go down to the iphone level. No more than 20%.

Aaannd... we're back to talking about market share.

Market share is easy. All you have to do is give your product away at cost. It's the rest that's a little trickier.

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by holymadness

Aaannd... we're back to talking about market share.

Market share is easy. All you have to do is give your product away at cost. It's the rest that's a little trickier.

Funny, Galaxy S3 and Note 2 cost more than the iphone. The old strategy, first you get mind share and market share with cheaper products, and then you sell the more expensive items.

[afv011]

Originally Posted by holymadness

Aaannd... we're back to talking about market share.

Market share is easy. All you have to do is give your product away at cost. It's the rest that's a little trickier.

Yes, but it has to start somewhere. Each sale of an Android tablet is a no-sale for an apple tablet. And most customers stick with what they buy first. Yes, there are those who jump ship (for all platforms), but most people stick with what they know and are familiar with.

[SeaKing]

Originally Posted by HansTWN

Funny, Galaxy S3 and Note 2 cost more than the iphone. The old strategy, first you get mind share and market share with cheaper products, and then you sell the more expensive items.

The pendulum swings back and forth, but it always is swinging.

What happens sometimes is that people identify with certain products and become very upset and defensive when those products or manufacturers start to decline. They take it very personal. They have identified so strongly that they fell that they personally are failing.

Some of the most obvious cases are in sports.

[HYPE]

Arguing that Android is winning in terms of market shares would be silly and pointless. I do, however, believe that it has very little to do with actual product quality. It's exactly like Windows vs Mac/OSX : Windows is a lot more popular, but the customer satisfaction is higher on Macs. In fact, many review websites are saying that the Macbook Pro is the best laptop ever built. I would argue that the situation is similar when it comes to Android vs iPhone/iOS.

[holymadness]

Originally Posted by HansTWN

Funny, Galaxy S3 and Note 2 cost more than the iphone. The old strategy, first you get mind share and market share with cheaper products, and then you sell the more expensive items.

What percentage of global Android market share do those two devices represent?

EDIT: lulz, the S3 is $100 cheaper than the iPhone. So what percentage of global market share does the Note 2 all by itself represent?

EDIT 2: Haha, even the Note 2 is selling for less than the iPhone 5 in the US. Fail all around.

[afv011]

Originally Posted by HYPE

Arguing that Android is winning in terms of market shares would be silly and pointless. I do, however, believe that it has very little to do with actual product quality. It's exactly like Windows vs Mac/OSX : Windows is a lot more popular, but the customer satisfaction is higher on Macs. In fact, many review websites are saying that the Macbook Pro is the best laptop ever built. I would argue that the situation is similar when it comes to Android vs iPhone/iOS.

It's not the same situation. Android offers a plethora of devices; customer satisfaction for an entry-level device can't be as high as satisfaction for a high-end device (it will be slower, smaller screen, poorer screen density, less storage space, ...). Apple only sells high-end devices, so this obviously skews the data in their favour.

[holymadness]

Originally Posted by afv011

Yes, but it has to start somewhere. Each sale of an Android tablet is a no-sale for an apple tablet. And most customers stick with what they buy first. Yes, there are those who jump ship (for all platforms), but most people stick with what they know and are familiar with.

Are you serious with this?

[bobcdy]

It seems to me that a rerun of the AppleII/Macintosh versus IBM type pcs is beginning with Ipad/Iphones. In the late 1970's Apple nearly monopolized the market in microcomputers, but only until an alternative open source competition developed starting with IBM. We all know that today Apple computer systems of all types are a tiny percentage of pc microcomputers from multiple companies; Apple has never been able to recovery its lost dominance in computers. The same will happen to Apple's new entertainment systems - unless Apple is able to develop and market another blockbuster such as the Ipad, it is doomed to eventually be smothered by competition from Ipad-like items from multiple companies.