12-21-2010, 03:31 PM | #16 | ||
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This is on top of the ~12 million iPads that will be sold this year. That's a whole lot more devices on the market that can read books. And I haven't even gone into the claimed 18K Nook Colors per day or other eInk devices. My point is the publishers know what their sales are with Agency pricing. What they don't know is whether those numbers are better or worse than they'd get without Agency pricing, because the market is changing so radically nearly quarter by quarter. They can't judge by 2009 numbers. At the end of Q1 this year, before the iPad and the advent of Agency, there were (and this is a semi-educated WAG) between 6 and 7 million non-phone devices out there capable of reading books. The number now is at least triple. My gut says if your book sales aren't matching that trend, you're falling behind. Quote:
If they did, they'd be reacting to the report linked just above about how people aren't flocking to these Agency-priced books. Time will tell, but I'm not betting on the existing publishers. I simply think they're too entrenched in their old way of doing things to successfully adapt to a completely different marketplace. |
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12-21-2010, 03:47 PM | #17 | |
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12-21-2010, 04:35 PM | #18 |
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Eventually enough people will have eReaders that a fair number of authors will be able to make a living selling only ebooks. We're already getting close, but I bet at some point (soon) Amazon will be selling eReaders for under $99, or giving them away free when you sign up for an Amazon Prime account. As this happens, authors will be able to start publishing ebooks directly and just cutting the publishers out of the loop. Once a few authors make this transition, and can prove they can make a living, it will become a flood of authors leaving publishers. Eventually we'll also see our first blockbuster ebook author along the lines of a J.K. Rowling or Stephanie Meyer -- one of those books that just everyone has to have. Just wait until someone makes millions without a publisher.
Do you think that as this starts happening publishers will suddenly discover that the prices they're charging for ebooks is too high, and the royalties they're paying authors for ebooks is too low? Or will they be left trying to sell books on their back list for exorbitant prices and trying to hold on to aging authors who don't like change? |
12-21-2010, 04:55 PM | #19 | |
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12-21-2010, 05:07 PM | #20 | |||
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@leebase: Quote:
@eric Quote:
Big publishers tripled their sales. That's good for any business, and it's pointless speculation to suggest that they could have (or should have) sold even more. Not to mention the fact that book sellers are in the business of making profit, not sales. |
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12-21-2010, 05:55 PM | #21 | |
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I can see the trend on Mobile Read, but I am definitely not sure that the same applies to the population in general. The previous generation of eInk devices, barring physical damage, is still perfectly usable for reading. |
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12-21-2010, 08:28 PM | #22 |
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@Eric....you haven't said anything to establish that you have a better understanding than the publishers on ebook pricing. You haven't any numbers on what actual sales are so how can you know is the $12.99 to $15.99 pricing is unsuccessful. We can assume that sales go up as prices go down, but we don't know at what point the increased sales of lower prices brings in more or less money. I'm sure the publishers have that information if anyone does.
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12-21-2010, 08:44 PM | #23 |
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12-22-2010, 05:14 AM | #24 | |
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It is pretty stupid that you can buy a paper book that is only for sale in a certain country from another country using the internet but you can't buy an electronic book. But thats the dinosaur book industry for you. Also what other industry would fix the prices that the retailer must sell them for. I still haven't worked out why this isn't illegal yet. Anyway, rant mode off :-) |
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12-22-2010, 10:03 AM | #25 | |
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It is annoying that people seem to blame the publisher for everything the do not like. |
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12-22-2010, 10:29 AM | #26 | ||
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Going forward, I expect more publishers to try to acquire worldwide electronic rights for titles, but existing titles are covered by existing contracts. Quote:
You may not like the deal, but there is nothing illegal about it. (And you may assume the publishers involved made very sure of that before proceeding.) ______ Dennis |
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12-22-2010, 01:24 PM | #27 | |
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______ Dennis |
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12-22-2010, 01:34 PM | #28 | |
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Amazon wants market share, and uses pricing to get it. They were getting a better than 50% discount from the publishers on print books (I've seen claims that are reasonable their actual discount was 55%), and wanted an even bigger one. Larger discounts to Amazon mean less revenue to publishers, so you can assume they'd be unhappy at such demands. Retail margins are normally very thin, and may amount to pennies on a dollar. That's why market share is coveted: the bigger your market share, the more dollars you make pennies on. The appropriate measuring stick for retail is usually inventory turns and return on assets, not profit margin. ______ Dennis |
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12-22-2010, 01:45 PM | #29 | |
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The biggest expense in producing such things is the cost of building the factory to make them, and the service of the debt you took on to build the facility. The more you make of whatever it is, the broader a base you have over which to amortize costs, and the cheaper each unit can be. Add to that supply chain constraints. When Amazon and Sony were in the early stages of selling their respective readers, there was one outfit actually making the screens: PVI. There were questions about supply constraints, and whether PVI could produce enough screens to meet everyone's orders. eInk subsequently got licensed to other manufacturers, so scarcity and attendant higher prices were no longer an issue. It's why Amazon can offer a Kindle model for $139 and still make money, when the earlier ones were almost three times that. As prices fall dramatically, do you really think satisfied reader owners won't see an opportunity to trade up to a new model which is faster and more powerful than the one they have at a much cheaper price? I have no idea what percentage of new readers sales are people "trading up", but I suspect it's a fair bit. ______ Dennis |
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12-22-2010, 01:58 PM | #30 | ||||
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The Internet and the available technology have made it relatively easy for people to "publish" their work. Selling it is quite another matter. The only people I can think of with a plausible shot at making a living selling direct are those who have already built an audience through traditional publishing. The vast majority of self-published authors will be lucky to cover their costs and maybe have a beer now and then. You can argue that they do it badly in many cases, but selling books is what publishers do. Quote:
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______ Dennis |
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