Can JK Rowling bring on e-book standardization?

[EatingPie]

Originally Posted by Toxaris

Due to the spread of e-books, backwards compatibility will be a problem/issue. You don't want to buy a new version if you change your reader. The publishers and retailers would love it of course. Older devices are not getting updates with newer versions of reading software. In my opinion that will also be a risk with ePUB3 or ePUB in general.

Sony hardware-updated the PRS-500 to support ePUB. This is the exception rather than the rule, but even the oldest of Sony's Readers can read every ePUB thrown at it. Newer models support more ePUB features certainly, but older models can still read the books.

And, yes, the industry wants everyone to re-purchase as much as possible, so they have little motivation to pursue a standard. It would take something monumental, like Apple having the world's largest music store and deciding to sell non-DRM music across the board.

Is Harry Potter that monumental? If anything is, it's Harry! If Rowling says no mobi format, Amazon will cave for sure and support ePUB (I am not speculating as to if she will, as that boat has sailed 2 pages ago ).

Oh, and the Futuresource article cited in support of 80% US sales in 2010 predicts that Google Books will cause 50% of eBooks to be sold outside the US by 2014. That's a definitive win for ePUB if it comes to pass.

-Pie

[queentess]

Originally Posted by EatingPie

Oh, and the Futuresource article cited in support of 80% US sales in 2010 predicts that Google Books will cause 50% of eBooks to be sold outside the US by 2014. That's a definitive win for ePUB if it comes to pass.

-Pie

I thought GoogleBooks wasn't yet available outside the U.S.? Am I confusing it with something else?

[Hellmark]

Originally Posted by queentess

I thought GoogleBooks wasn't yet available outside the U.S.? Am I confusing it with something else?

It is not, however, I guess the jist of it is that they expect GB to expand that quickly.

[Toxaris]

Originally Posted by queentess

No, my point was that you're making sweeping generalizations that aren't based upon any facts. Would love to see some hard data on why you think epub and mobi are the leading formats. You accuse Americans of thinking they're the center of the world, yet you're being very Euro-centric in your thinking.

As for U.S. inhabitants "acting like they are the world", according to this article, the U.S. accounted for about 80% of global ebook sales in 2010. That is not a small marketshare.

Learn to read.... I say that there are GLOBALLY three more or less leading formats. I never say ePUB is bigger/larger than mobi. I just say there is more than the US. I also am not Euro-Centric. I know there is more 'out there'. I also know that the Asian is a totally other market and I have no doubt there are more formats in use there. To be hones, the Asian literature market is mostly unknown in the Western world. Only a few books make it here. This is of course not counting Manga and alike.

I have doubt about the report mentioned in the article. It is not specifying sources, so it cannot be checked. A good report always have sources and figures. Also, if you look at their other reports, I have doubts about their validity.
I have no doubt that the US market is larger than the european market. Heck, I am also a customer on the US market. Why is the market larger? One is of course just numbers. More inhabitants make a larger market. The other one is better and earlier availability of readers. Also the publisher aim their arrows at their largest markets first. Localised markets are not populair because they are smaller. Will that change in the future? Probably, but the local markets will never be bigger. There will more native English than other languages, except maybe Spanish.

[EatingPie]

At this point we are actually arguing apples and oranges.... in circles! Here's what I mean.

MOBI
The Futuresource article says 2010 ebook sales were 80% in the US, 10% in the UK, both dominated by Amazon. So MOBI is the most-sold format in that study.

EPUB
Every major Reader supports ePUB except Amazon's Kindle. That's Apple, B&N, Kobo, Sony, etc. So the majority of Readers support ePUB (no study required).

Using these facts (giving futuresource the benefit of the doubt, calling it "fact"), we've made two arguments about standardization:

1) ORIGINAL: Amazon adopts EPUB because everyone else uses it.

2) CURRENT: Everyone adopts MOBI because it's the "dominant" format as of 2010.

Here's the question:

Given (1) and (2), which is more likely? Getting one manufacturer to change, or getting every other manufacturer to change?

Honestly, I think either scenario falls under "moving mountains." But I don't need a statistical study to tell me that moving one mountain is easier than moving a bunch of them. This is why I'm in the EPUB camp.

-Pie

PS. I ignored the scenario "(3) nothing changes" because this is a thread about standardization, and (3) means no standard.

[Hellmark]

Originally Posted by EatingPie

Using these facts (giving futuresource the benefit of the doubt, calling it "fact"), we've made two arguments about standardization:

1) ORIGINAL: Amazon adopts EPUB because everyone else uses it.

2) CURRENT: Everyone adopts MOBI because it's the "dominant" format as of 2010.

Here's the question:

Given (1) and (2), which is more likely? Getting one manufacturer to change, or getting every other manufacturer to change?

I dont see others accepting Mobi, since Amazon prevents devices from supporting Mobi's DRM as well as another type of DRM. You either get to not support it, or only support it.

[EatingPie]

Originally Posted by Hellmark

I dont see others accepting Mobi, since Amazon prevents devices from supporting Mobi's DRM as well as another type of DRM. You either get to not support it, or only support it.

Again, this is a discussion about standardization. Amazon does not allow others to support it now, but if it could become the standard -- and bring in licensing fees galore -- it's still a possibility on the table.

-Pie

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by JSWolf

Again, wrong. So why are you bothering to try to tell me that AZW/Mobipocket is #1 world wide. It's not. It's ePub.

Wrong. Put up or shut up.

Originally Posted by JSWolf

That article only speaks of the US. That in no way is global. There are more readers sold outside that us that support ePub then Kindles. So given all the readers world wide that support ePub, that would make ePub the format.

What part of:

This equates to a value of more $900 million and was largely attributable to growth in the U.S. region, which represented more than 80 percent of global revenues in 2010.

don't you understand?

Originally Posted by JSWolf

Wake up and see that all you are doing is looking just inside the US. If you took into account the entire world, you would see that ePub is the format outside the US. That combined with the US makes ePub overall the #1 format. Why do you persist in thinking eBooks don't exist outside the US?

Everyone else is the entire world that's not Amazon.

Learn to read. As was posted in the link, the US accounts for over 80% of global revenues.

Originally Posted by Phogg

You admit that neither you nor your source even attempted in any way shape or form to obtain data from these regions.



I called you, and by extension your source, on asserting that primarily US data equates to world data. Misleading at best and an intentional lie to manipulate the marketing at worst.

Now you insist that if I dont have the data myself you have to be allowed to claim English speaking data really could be world data.

Not gonna happen. The claim you posted was fraudulent.


You and they need to simply say "as of this date within the US, Canada, Britain, and Australia" rather than worldwide when that is the only data you are looking at.

But that's *not* the only data I'm looking at. I went to the trouble of providing a link; you should at least go to the trouble of reading it.

The article also discusses Italy, Spain, France, and Germany, and notes that *Western Europe* (which includes many other non-English speaking countries, btw) has only 10% of the market.

I don't know whether the article considers areas within the former eastern bloc; it doesn't mention them specifically. But this is also pretty much a non-issue - even if the eastern bloc sold as many e-books as western Europe (which I very much doubt), the US would go from having "over 80% of the e-book market" to having almost 80% of the e-book market. Which doesn't change the underlying point one bit.

And the thing is, if you even followed this topic minimally, you would not be surprised by this. E-book sales as a percentage of total book sales in the US are huge - in all of 2010, e-books made up 9% of all books sales; thus far in 2011 e-books are almost 30% of total books sales in the US.

Compare this to other countries. In France, e-books make up .5% of total sales. In Germany, less than 1%. (Both markets are much smaller than the US market as well). In Italy, e-books are something like .3% of the market, at most. Aside from the UK, numbers are comparable or worse for the rest of Europe.

The situation in Europe is comparable to the situation in the US before the Kindle (and then Nook) were sold - and probably for the same reason - the absence of any compelling e-book store. (And given price maintenance agreements in most of Europe, it's not clear how quickly this will change).

[Hellmark]

Originally Posted by EatingPie

Again, this is a discussion about standardization. Amazon does not allow others to support it now, but if it could become the standard -- and bring in licensing fees galore -- it's still a possibility on the table.

Also, I'm not entirely sure if they're allowing licensing. I know a few devices that did support mobi DRM switched away from it. I still see Amazon having to bend and change in order for anything to happen, one way or the other.

[EatingPie]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

Learn to read. As was posted in the link, the US accounts for over 80% of global revenues.

For those interested, you can read the Futuresource article yourselves if you like. Scroll down to "E-book Market Experiences Growth of 200%."

Here are some issues I have with these citations.

Of this 80%, how much specifically is Kindle format? Many sites report the Nook as the #2 eReader, so we cannot assume all 80% belongs to Amazon. Neither does the article give numbers for free books downloaded via Google Books or library lending, which the article says play "an important role." Both are ePUB-based systems. How popular were these? The author's expectation that Google Books European launch will have a "significant impact" suggests that free books are indeed very popular.

Okay, see, the problem with the citation was that 80% was given, and then assumed to be a total victory for Kindle format. That is not the case. With B&N, Google Books and Libraries, ePUB may still be the most-used format. Ultimately, the above statistic does not tell us anything about which format is more popular.

The following article states that four publishers have been told Amazon will accept ePUB in the future.

http://www.thebookseller.com/news/am...pub-files.html

Another reason for standardization: it reduces costs for publishers!

-Pie

[DiapDealer]

Originally Posted by EatingPie

Another reason for standardization: it reduces costs for publishers!

Not when they're being encouraged to submit their books to Amazon in ePub format already.

[Arrghus]

Originally Posted by stonetools

I gave Karma to Arrghus, because he expressed exactly what I felt. Surely there has been enough wanking about the minutiae of font and format choices. I understand that geeks gotta geek, but there have been pages and pages of this.
As to agency pricing, Pottermore is not a direct threat to agency pricing, because what Pottermore is doing IS agency pricing. Agency pricing is about the author/publisher setting the price, and Pottermore is the publisher in this case. Pottermore can do some interesting things with pricing.
1. They can offer various kinds of bundles.
2. They can offer pricier "enhanced " editions
3.They can offer tie-ins to DVDs or video games.
4. Less likely,they can vary price as to geographical area.

Its hard to say what they will do.

I read in an article that other "megauthors" that James Patterson, Nora Roberts, or Steven King may be tempted to do the same kind of thing if Pottermore succeeds. In the future, there may be Pattersonmore, the Robertsworld, or the Kingverse....

I'm not entirely sure what 'Karma' is on MR (I'm guessing just some fun and light-hearted way to show your approval of a member's post), but thank you.

You're right about agency pricing - strictly speaking - but, as I think it is mentioned elsewhere, at least the author, if they are self-publishing, would not have an arbitrary price imposed upon their work by a monolithic publishing house.

As for the rest of this ever-expanding thread - it's lost on me. My Dad is bigger than your Dad nonsense... (Yawn.)

[CleverClothe]

Originally Posted by EatingPie

For those interested, you can read the Futuresource article yourselves if you like. Scroll down to "E-book Market Experiences Growth of 200%."

Here are some issues I have with these citations.

Of this 80%, how much specifically is Kindle format? Many sites report the Nook as the #2 eReader, so we cannot assume all 80% belongs to Amazon. Neither does the article give numbers for free books downloaded via Google Books or library lending, which the article says play "an important role." Both are ePUB-based systems. How popular were these? The author's expectation that Google Books European launch will have a "significant impact" suggests that free books are indeed very popular.

Okay, see, the problem with the citation was that 80% was given, and then assumed to be a total victory for Kindle format. That is not the case. With B&N, Google Books and Libraries, ePUB may still be the most-used format. Ultimately, the above statistic does not tell us anything about which format is more popular.

The following article states that four publishers have been told Amazon will accept ePUB in the future.

http://www.thebookseller.com/news/am...pub-files.html

Another reason for standardization: it reduces costs for publishers!

-Pie

I don't even trust their numbers at all. The $900 Million figure seems to be an extrapolation from the 90 Million ebooks. Which makes me question how they arrived at THAT number.

[EatingPie]

Originally Posted by DiapDealer

Not when they're being encouraged to submit their books to Amazon in ePub format already.

Sorry, I wasn't clear. The thing about savings in publishing came from that article I had cited. Never did they use the term "encourage," nor did the article say that the 4 publishers were submitting ePUB yet. The gist was that the ePUB would be accepted by Amazon and sold as ePUB by Amazon for the Kindle.

FTA: "Amazon has told US publishers that it will begin accepting digital files in the ePub format in the near future and will also allow users of its Kindle device to read ePub files."

Obviously that isn't happening yet, so the "savings" still isn't there for the publishers.

My addition would be that I hope said savings is passed on to us readers... but then again, it seems like increased costs get passed on to consumers, but savings seldom do!

-Pie

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by EatingPie

At this point we are actually arguing apples and oranges.... in circles! Here's what I mean.

MOBI
The Futuresource article says 2010 ebook sales were 80% in the US, 10% in the UK, both dominated by Amazon. So MOBI is the most-sold format in that study.

EPUB
Every major Reader supports ePUB except Amazon's Kindle. That's Apple, B&N, Kobo, Sony, etc. So the majority of Readers support ePUB (no study required).

Using these facts (giving futuresource the benefit of the doubt, calling it "fact"), we've made two arguments about standardization:

1) ORIGINAL: Amazon adopts EPUB because everyone else uses it.

2) CURRENT: Everyone adopts MOBI because it's the "dominant" format as of 2010.

Here's the question:

Given (1) and (2), which is more likely? Getting one manufacturer to change, or getting every other manufacturer to change?

Honestly, I think either scenario falls under "moving mountains." But I don't need a statistical study to tell me that moving one mountain is easier than moving a bunch of them. This is why I'm in the EPUB camp.

-Pie

PS. I ignored the scenario "(3) nothing changes" because this is a thread about standardization, and (3) means no standard.

There have been links posted to articles that say that B&N is #2 in the USA with 25% of the eBook market. So that leave some % for Sony & Kobo and others. So 80% for Amazon would then have to be incorrect as taking 25% off of 100% is not 80%. So sorry, that article claiming 80% for Amazon isn't correct. We have Sony, B&N, Kobo, & Apple as the big players. Then there are the people who have other readers. For Apple, I'm going with iBooks and none of the other apps.

Now, we have Sony with the 500 sold before the Kindle and all the other models. We have different models of B&N and Kobo. We have lots of other readers such as Jetbooks and whatnot. So given all of this, there is no way Amazon can be 80% in the US. The numbers just don't fit.

So how can we get 80% for Amazon when there are so many other readers out there that are not Kindle's? We can't and we don't. Again, that article is guessing and incorrectly at that.