Will Paper books fade away?

[primbs]

Here are two reviews of ebooks from Jacob Nielsen.

http://www.useit.com/alertbox/980726.html
1998

"Electronic text should not mimic the old medium and its linear ways. Page turning remains a bad interface, even when it can be done more conveniently than by clicking the mouse on a "next page" button. It is an insufficient goal to make computerized text as fast as print: we need to improve on the past, not simply match it."

http://www.useit.com/alertbox/kindle...ty-review.html
2008

"Amazon's new e-book reader offers print-level readability and shines for reading fiction, but it has awkward interaction design and poor support for non-linear content."

[thibaulthalpern]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

The Hanvon device demo'd in this MR thread ably demonstrates the fact that we don't need to keep paper around just to write or take notes on.

Really? Well, you can't pass this piece of paper around easily at a meeting of say six people where everyone could use a copy to look and mark on. Besides, even if everyone had one of these devices, I don't see how it would facilitate a meeting where more than just one piece of paper was talked about since the device is only one screen.

In other words, when we interact with paper in certain situations, it isn't only the paper we're interacting with but the relevancy of space is there too. We can have multiple pieces of paper spread out which we can flip back and forth and refer to. Not efficiently done and sometimes not doable with an electronic device.

[thibaulthalpern]

Another thing: an electronic device's screen is a fixed size. A paper's size isn't fixed. A poster wouldn't look good on that device; a large paper for writing on (e.g. brainstorming session) wouldn't work on such a device.

Sometimes incorporating electronics into certain tasks makes those tasks much more clumsy and difficult for the way human beings work. Why would we do that to ourselves? Yes, there is a place for electronics, of course, but not necessarily everywhere for human tasks.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

I'm hearing a lot of excuses to keep paper around... but not legitimate reasons. Fact of the matter is, electronics can do all of the tasks mentioned above. Electronic whiteboards. Document sharing, across a room, or a continent. Realtime collaboration. Version tracking. Transfer to multiple platforms. Conversion to multiple formats. Romantic ideals aside, electronics can not only do the same things paper can do... electronics can do those things better, and more things besides.

Paper may be good for a lot of things... wiping your behind, for instance... but when it comes to communicating information, ink on paper is the last millennium's technology, as relevant to the future as the pony express.

No, it will not completely disappear. But it will be relegated to a niche technology and used only in those increasingly rare occasions when efficiency, immediacy, practicality and utility do not matter.

[thibaulthalpern]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

I'm hearing a lot of excuses to keep paper around... but not legitimate reasons. Fact of the matter is, electronics can do all of the tasks mentioned above. Electronic whiteboards. Document sharing, across a room, or a continent. Realtime collaboration. Version tracking. Transfer to multiple platforms. Conversion to multiple formats. Romantic ideals aside, electronics can not only do the same things paper can do... electronics can do those things better, and more things besides.

Paper may be good for a lot of things... wiping your behind, for instance... but when it comes to communicating information, ink on paper is the last millennium's technology, as relevant to the future as the pony express.

No, it will not completely disappear. But it will be relegated to a niche technology and used only in those increasingly rare occasions when efficiency, immediacy, practicality and utility do not matter.

I don't think I'm coming from the point of view of a romantic. If I were, I wouldn't even be typing on my computer to this forum right now. I'm talking practicality here.

I do think we'll just have to agree that we'll be disagreeing though. I am not convinced that electronics can do all that paper can do. Electronics can replace some, but not all. For instance, the computer has largely replaced my heavy duty writing tasks although it has definitely not eliminated my pen and paper because guess what.... There are times when switching to the pen and paper aids in getting past writer's block. Just ask any teacher of writing and you'll hear that too. Furthermore, when taking notes in class I find the computer extremely clumsy. Taking notes in pen and paper is much easier because I can much easily move my pen to wherever I want whereas it takes quite a bit more effort to type notes on the computer. Trying putting diagrams, tables, and chart sketches rapidly along with text using the computer (imagining that you're note taking) versus using a pen and paper for the same purpose. Of course if you're going to eventually make it neat, it's much better on the computer, but the computer cannot do the rough and dirty sketches easily that a pen and paper can.

Furthermore, electronics are not as reliable as the paper in certain areas of the world. In those cases, sticking to paper for certain tasks is better than electronics. I grew up in the capital of an African country where electricity is shoddy and still was when I was there again in 2006. Of course, electronics there are replacing certain tasks that were done by paper, but by no means is paper being eliminated in its entirety. When in the field and taking notes (I'm an anthropologist) I don't want to lug around some delicate electronics with me and rather resort to pen and notebook. The computer is unreliable in my field situation because
a) electricity is not readily available,
b) it's clumsy to talk to informants and have a laptop with you while trying to jot notes (a job which the pen and paper can much better do without being socially overly awkward)
c) I cannot inconspicuously take notes with a laptop whereas I could with a pen and paper (there are scenarios when I run away to a bathroom or duck into a small alley to rapidly take notes before going back to my informants; not something easily done with a laptop)

All the examples you give about electronic collaboration is fine and good in theory but when put into practice in an office environment or school environment or field environment in certain areas of the country or world can become extremely clumsy.

When I'm in the field, I leave my laptop in my room. When I return for the night or when I return a few days later, I turn on the laptop, open my field notebook and transcribe and expand my jottings into full form notes. This is where the electronics shine because when I am sitting down to type up my notes, I can do them much faster on the computer than I could on paper. In this situation, writing longhand to expand fieldnotes is silly because it's slower and paper is not "searchable" the way electronics are.

My fieldwork example then gives an example where pen and paper and electronics work together side-by-side. Pen and paper good for the immediacy and when in the field talking to informants and jotting down stuff inconspicuously. Electronics/computer good for expanding my fieldnotes when I'm back in my room.

I'm of the conviction that paper and electronics can go hand in hand together and that there are certain tasks that are better performed by paper and pen than electronics (and vice versa, of course). And, there is no good reason to eliminate paper entirely.

[primbs]

As some ebook sales go up, so do paper versions of the same book.


http://journal.bookfinder.com/2009/0...-frontier.html

[cerement]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

Paper may be good for a lot of things... wiping your behind, for instance... but when it comes to communicating information, ink on paper is the last millennium's technology, as relevant to the future as the pony express.

That's what they said when computers first started becoming so popular. The grand visions of "the paperless office". Nowadays we consume more paper than ever before. Computers make it that much easier to print out a couple extra copies (instead of carbons), that much easier to print up the current revision, correct it by hand, then enter the edits.

For wholesale adoption within a corporate environment, the device will have to have: physically thin, lightweight, an A4/Letter sized color screen, touch sensitive (preferably stylus or pen), and wireless mesh; software will have to be easy enough for middle management to use it, must support full Microsoft Office at minimum, and be able to handle collaborative whiteboarding in realtime over the wireless interface. We are still a long way from this point.

[Scenario: Conference room (doesn't have to be, but no manager would miss the change at interrupting productivity): I "hand out" the slides to everyone's tablets, as I switch from one to the next, everyone else's switches, as I annotate or edit, notes and changes show up on everyone else's, everyone else can annotate, either private or public (dependent on "corporate rank")]

[iterati]

Originally Posted by thibaulthalpern

Another thing: an electronic device's screen is a fixed size. A paper's size isn't fixed.

Exactly! That is my chief argument against paper. That what is written in paper is fixed. I don’t appreciate reading in typeface/font size that someone else chose from me. I prefer the flexibility that machines offer.

As for the “paperless office” it isn’t far now as the new generation is taking over. The issue is not about the current technology but rather the instincts of the “old” people (over 25-30) that oppose to change. It’s not about having a device of specified size, colour, touch-screen and other paraphernalia. We don’t need to define such specification that is against the flexibility and diversity of technology. Rather we need the different options, like computer screens, PDA, e-ink, phones etc.

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by iterati

Exactly! That is my chief argument against paper. That what is written in paper is fixed. I don’t appreciate reading in typeface/font size that someone else chose from me. I prefer the flexibility that machines offer.

As for the “paperless office” it isn’t far now as the new generation is taking over. The issue is not about the current technology but rather the instincts of the “old” people (over 25-30) that oppose to change. It’s not about having a device of specified size, colour, touch-screen and other paraphernalia. We don’t need to define such specification that is against the flexibility and diversity of technology. Rather we need the different options, like computer screens, PDA, e-ink, phones etc.

I didn't realise 'old' was over 25. Crap! I'll have to order that Zimmer-frame and all-in-one foot warmer now before it's too late. And while I'm at it -- Get off my lawn you kids! With your whizbang new-fangled whirlyme-gigs and your hoojits and watzits and all the bloopety-bloos!

[Sweetpea]

Originally Posted by iterati

As for the “paperless office” it isn’t far now as the new generation is taking over. The issue is not about the current technology but rather the instincts of the “old” people (over 25-30) that oppose to change. It’s not about having a device of specified size, colour, touch-screen and other paraphernalia. We don’t need to define such specification that is against the flexibility and diversity of technology. Rather we need the different options, like computer screens, PDA, e-ink, phones etc.

I think the average person of 25-30 has every gadget that can be had (if that person is slightly into technology).

I personally think it's more the 55+ managers that stop the progress in that respect, as it will take a money investment. And those people are generally the ones with the hand on the money purse. (and they also generally refuse to remove their hand!)

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

thibaulthalpern, I hear the things you're saying... and I realize it comes down to the organic experience of putting pen (or pencil) to paper, which I do not argue is a useful way to work. But you seem to be overlooking the fact that you can be equally as organic on an electronic device... that is, writing manually on its surface. The Hanvon video demonstrates this pretty well, and of course, if it allows you to write handwritten notes on top of a document, surely it can call up a "blank page" and let you write freely there. And it is not the only device that allows you to do that... such devices have actually been around for years. (Heck, my Casio Zoomer could do it in the nineties.)

That means that a device can be used "in the field," "on the run," "vertically," if desired. I've done that with lesser devices (like the Zoomer, and others) for years. That's why I don't need notepads, nor do I depend on switching from keyboards to paper to "undo a writer's block" or get fresh ideas down. About the only thing many of the existing devices are missing might be better power sources for field applications, and with the latest hand-cranked generators and solar cell rechargers, I wouldn't consider that much of an obstacle today.

(Random thought: How well did those notepads work in the driving rain? An electronic device in a clear protective cover can still be worked on... even with a touchscreen.)

This is what I'm saying: That electronics can effectively reproduce all the advantages of paper (plus added advantages of their own); it's just a matter of thinking about what you want/need and applying the right technology; and the point is, all of those needed technological elements are not still under development, existing in science fiction only... they are here today.

I've personally met many people who, like you, would not be convinced that an electronic device could replace their traditional method of doing things. Then, either at someone else's urging, or because of their own changing needs, they tried it... and found the electronic device could, in fact, do what they wanted/needed to do very effectively. My personal axiom has always been: "You get used to what you want to get used to." This axiom applies to all devices, old or new, and it comes not down to the technology's capabilities to adapt, but down to your ability to adapt yourself to them.

So we can agree to disagree. On the other hand, you must honestly give the other side a try, or you can't know for sure that the others are wrong...

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by cerement

That's what they said when computers first started becoming so popular. The grand visions of "the paperless office". Nowadays we consume more paper than ever before. Computers make it that much easier to print out a couple extra copies (instead of carbons), that much easier to print up the current revision, correct it by hand, then enter the edits.

This, again, is not the fault of the technology, but of the people who inefficiently use it. Picture a caveman carrying his newfound invention, the wheel, on his back... is that the wheel's fault, or the caveman's?

[desertgrandma]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

I'm hearing a lot of excuses to keep paper around... but not legitimate reasons. Fact of the matter is, electronics can do all of the tasks mentioned above. Electronic whiteboards. Document sharing, across a room, or a continent. Realtime collaboration. Version tracking. Transfer to multiple platforms. Conversion to multiple formats. Romantic ideals aside, electronics can not only do the same things paper can do... electronics can do those things better, and more things besides.

Paper may be good for a lot of things... wiping your behind, for instance... but when it comes to communicating information, ink on paper is the last millennium's technology, as relevant to the future as the pony express.

No, it will not completely disappear. But it will be relegated to a niche technology and used only in those increasingly rare occasions when efficiency, immediacy, practicality and utility do not matter.

Steve. How do you reconcile this with teaching small ones to write?

I'm assuming you are thinking of little 'smart boards" (we have them at our school) for each student. Then what do they do when they go home? How do they practice their penmanship?

How do you save their progress from the beginning of the year to the end, for comparison?

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by desertgrandma

I'm assuming you are thinking of little 'smart boards" (we have them at our school) for each student. Then what do they do when they go home? How do they practice their penmanship?

Let them take them home to practice. What else? If that means buying every child a "smart board" of their own... there you go.

Originally Posted by desertgrandma

How do you save their progress from the beginning of the year to the end, for comparison?

Is it an electronic writer? It has memory. Save problem solved.

As I said, these issues can be handled by electronic devices. Will the kids want them? Make them attractive to the kids (ask Disney or Nickelodeon for pointers), and they will cherish them. It does mean learning some new habits, and possibly customized devices for that task (small, durable, cheap for young students). But the problems are not insurmountable.

[desertgrandma]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

Let them take them home to practice. What else? If that means buying every child a "smart board" of their own... there you go.



Is it an electronic writer? It has memory. Save problem solved.

As I said, these issues can be handled by electronic devices. Will the kids want them? Make them attractive to the kids (ask Disney or Nickelodeon for pointers), and they will cherish them. It does mean learning some new habits, and possibly customized devices for that task (small, durable, cheap for young students). But the problems are not insurmountable.

I think you are looking a little further into the future than I thought you were.

I don't see it in my life time or my 5 yr old granddaughters.