CNET predicts dedicated ereaders are doomed technology

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by ApK

Nothing to do with technology, just courtesy. When I was younger, people would talk too loudly in the library, and the librarian would silence them or eject them.
Now the librarian has no effect for fear of being sued or beaten up.

Some newer libraries around here have "quiet rooms," with a door that separates the room from the rest of the library and a fake fireplace or indoor waterfall sculpture thing (I'm not sure how to describe it) that provides a little white noise. Plus some tables and comfortable reading chairs. I think it's a nice compromise.

[MrsJoseph]

Originally Posted by ApK

Nothing to do with technology, just courtesy. When I was younger, people would talk too loudly in the library, and the librarian would silence them or eject them.
Now the librarian has no effect for fear of being sued or beaten up.

[CHunter_Author]

Sad to say, but e-readers are certainly doomed. Tablets are more diverse. You can watch movies, go on the internet, use touch screen technology, and a host of other things. The most damning fact for the e-readers is that through time, the tablets will become cheaper. When someone like Apple comes out with the next generation tablet, the price of the original will come down. Imagine an ipad for $200 to $250. Then a $125 to $150 the year after that. The e-reader will retreat in price until it is something like $29.99. They'll be sold in discount stores before long. The market is very fast, hopefully the good companies will adapt in time

[Freeshadow]

as I said in the rant thread - courtesy seems to be dead by now
the new behaviour fashioned is what I'd rather call iDon'tmindedness

(check our stylish white blinders out NOW - the 1st 100 customers'll recieve matching earplugs for free)

[Freeshadow]

@Chunter

Imagine people who don't want watch videos as they read, the same who turn off TV when they grab a book.
for them all the blessings you speak of 'll be nothing but battery-consumming-built-in ballast.

[GA Russell]

I don't think that the market for eBook readers will dry up. There continues to exist a market for simple calculators that sell for only a dollar at Walmart.

What I fear is that the companies will choose not to meet the demand, but instead make only fancier models, keeping the price high.

What keeps me optimistic about simple eBook readers is that they, like simple calculators and simple cell phones, will have users who are not interested in the other functions. I bought my cell phone for only $10 with no contract about a year ago. This is not so for computers, for example, whose users continue to demand more from them.

[CHunter_Author]

Good point Freeshadow and GA Russell,

The e-reader is not likely to disappear entirely. There will always be people who just want to keep it simple. But those people will be in the minority, especially here in America. The e-reader will likely become a niche market shrinking year by year.

[boxcorner]

Originally Posted by MrsJoseph

I think discourtesy has increased, as technology has advanced. For example, in the use of transportation and public places, playing of music, use of telephones, watching videos and TV, etc. Perhaps social niceties are no longer considered necessary because people spend less time interacting face-to-face, and spend more time watching TV and videos, Web surfing, using social media, e-mailing, SMS messaging, tweeting, and so on.

[Freeshadow]

GA Russel it's not always the users 't are the OSes demanding more power because of the eye candy they force down your throat.
I haven't actually bought a new desktop since years - I use the ones up my little win using sis discards because they become too weak for the kind of actual windows versions which in order are expected by newer versions off applications
My actual desktop is an AthlonXP 1800+ with 1G Ram doing basically all i need it to be able to. With Linux.

I got a new laptop gifted recently - this one runs win 7 and often enough seems to be slower than the old box. unfortunately they don't give OS install media anymore with them there are only this pest of restore partitions and screwed MBRs so I can't properly install even a dual boot w/o irrestorably wrecking the only win copy i possess for this box...

boxcorner: nah i think you are wrong - would it be so, then the japaneze being called even more gadget-crazy than all western cultures together wouldn't fi in the image since it's still said that behaviour means a lot there
('d be interested in 1st eye reports here)
According with that I think it's the prohibition of duelling that lead to a decay of manners.

[orwell2k]

Originally Posted by MrsJoseph

http://cnettv.cnet.com/?tag=hdr;brandnav

On January 24th CNET TV posted a video predicting their top 5 doomed technologies:

5. Blu-ray
4. dedicated ereaders
3. 3D TV
2. Wireless HDMI
1. Wi-Fi in cars

CNET predicts that dedicated ereaders are a doomed technology and they will soon be over taken by tablets. "Readers, they're a niche for life."

And here I was thinking of buying a Sony PRS-950.

Media predictions are usually crap, but I suspect this one may prove out about 60%:

5. Blu-ray
4. dedicated ereaders
3. 3D TV

Why? 3D TV goes without saying - what's the point?

Blu-ray is clearly an attempt to milk money from a "new" technology - DVDs have become so cheap the film industry needed a new money-maker, but DVD is too well entrenched. And whilst there is a clear quality difference, the take-up has been too slow and a very large % of users are perfectly happy with DVD quality at DVD prices (me too)! Blu-ray will succeed only in the sense that available players will soon be blu-ray/dvd combo only (i.e. consumers will have no choice).

Dedicated eReaders is a more difficult one, not least because of the emotions such a statement raises for most users of this kind of forum. But eReaders were/are always a niche device - let's face it, by definition all you can do is read! Some features may be added - annotations, etc. - but reading is their primary usage. Tablets provide an additional dimension in that you can read, plus do so much more. The analogy to "smart phones" is a little flawed, as there are plenty of non-smart phones around, albeit they often still have "basic" smart features like e-mail, mms, web, etc. I personally hate them!

But since Xmas I have been reading solely on my iPad - my poor PB360 has been in the drawer, battery now drained! The only drawbacks I have for the larger tablet device are:

1. larger device - by definition the iPad is bigger/heavier, but this is not a problem for me (I eat my weeties every morning )

2. battery life - this is an issue, but one I have not had cause to rue (yet). I keep my iPad "topped up" and do a monthly battery recondition (full discharge/charge cycle), and I get a full 10 hours. For all the Apple-bashers out there, iPad is probably the only device that delivers the "advertised" battery life:
(a) Apple says 10 hours and that's what I get, even playing video
(b) eInk devices tend to use the misleading "page-turns" usage, and I never get close to 7,000 from my PB360 no matter how you define a page-turn - it's a non-issue for eInk as I get literally days (up to 1 week) of full-time reading usage, but it is a very misleading statement by nearly every eInk device out there
(c) how many laptops get their "advertised" usage of hours on battery - zero (even Apple)?

Anyway, I usually ignore CNET commentaries, but this one may have some reasonable accuracy, albeit the motiviation for such an analysis is somewhat questionable...

[sabredog]

Originally Posted by CHunter_Author

Sad to say, but e-readers are certainly doomed. Tablets are more diverse. You can watch movies, go on the internet, use touch screen technology, and a host of other things.

That may be your opinion and certainly one you are entitled to, however I certainly consider it flawed.

Many people simply want to use a device that allows them to read a book. Not be distracted by emails, pop ups, notifications and the lure of Facebook, games, youtube and other apps. Tablet devices have their place but as an ereader?...

No, I do not truly believe they can take that role over as yet.

I have had my fill of using my iphone as a reader out of house. The constant interruptions detract from my reading experience. Now that is something my ereader never does, the only distraction being my warm wife next to me.

I only have to charge my ereader once a month too, whilst my iphone is charged every day.

[avantman42]

Originally Posted by CHunter_Author

Sad to say, but e-readers are certainly doomed.

Originally Posted by CHunter_Author

The e-reader will retreat in price until it is something like $29.99. They'll be sold in discount stores before long.

I think you and I have different definitions of the word "doomed". I wouldn't consider a future where e-readers are available for $29.99 to mean that they are doomed.

[Maggie Leung]

Originally Posted by sabredog

I have had my fill of using my iphone as a reader out of house. The constant interruptions detract from my reading experience. Now that is something my ereader never does, the only distraction being my warm wife next to me.

If you find need to keep your phone and Internet connection on, won't your phone interrupt even if you're reading on a separate dedicated device? If you can bear to read with your phone and e-mail functions off, there's airplane mode on phones and tablets. Turning it on and off is a cinch, if you find concentrating a problem.

Multi-use devices offer more options, but their ability to interrupt is controlled by the owner. For instance, I have e-mail on manual, so I check it only when I want to. Phone is no problem, because I'm not a chatter and I give out my number to few people.

[Elfwreck]

Originally Posted by CHunter_Author

Sad to say, but e-readers are certainly doomed. Tablets are more diverse. You can watch movies, go on the internet, use touch screen technology, and a host of other things.

I don't care about the ability to watch movies and use a touchscreen.

I care about long battery life (long enough for a solid weekend of reading with no access to a recharger) and portability (small enough to hold comfortably with one hand on a crowded train for more than an hour).

Would happily switch to a tablet that has those traits. I don't think one's going to be made anytime soon; tablets are leaning towards larger screens, not smaller, and long battery life isn't high on their priority list; they're assuming everyone is happy to treat them like phones & plug them in for a few hours every night.

I expect that eventually, tablets will take over, but it'll take longer than CNet expects, because I'm not alone in caring more about battery life & small size than the other bells and whistles, and a lot of other people care about e-ink screen quality. It'll be a while before the tablet market spills into our niche.

The e-reader will retreat in price until it is something like $29.99. They'll be sold in discount stores before long. The market is very fast, hopefully the good companies will adapt in time

Ooh, I hope so!

[queentess]

Originally Posted by GA Russell

I don't think that the market for eBook readers will dry up. There continues to exist a market for simple calculators that sell for only a dollar at Walmart.

I saw a $15 mp3 player the other day. Blew my mind.

Originally Posted by GA Russell

What keeps me optimistic about simple eBook readers is that they, like simple calculators and simple cell phones, will have users who are not interested in the other functions. I bought my cell phone for only $10 with no contract about a year ago. This is not so for computers, for example, whose users continue to demand more from them.

It's the same for all single-function devices vs multi-function devices. You can easily find cheap one-function devices such as mp3 players, calculators, cameras, phones, etc. And for computers, the comparable is a netbook (though you can, of course, find very expensive netbooks...).

Ereaders will be in the same situation in another 1-2 years. Look how far they've already fallen! I paid $360 for my K2 in 2009... 1.5 years later and I upgraded to a K3 for only $140. Snagged some discounted Sonys for less than $100.