Printed books will not exist after sometime

webroot · 02-09-2015, 10:02 PM

We have seen booming growth for ebook industry and now ebook share is flattening and growth slowed down. Many peoples have drawn conclusion like, ebooks have reached (or reaching) their saturation point, so now ebooks and printed will coexist. Some gone to an extent that printed books will never go (<-- i am really curious what is the idea behind).

Up-till now there is no shortage of older generation who admire printed books no matter if they also read ebooks. So lets say after 5 year or may decade when, that generation retire and we have totally new breeds who were never (or rarely) introduced to printed books instead they were exposed via ebooks way alone, will not then printed books slowly extinct?

Printed books definitely offer some privilege but what will be the point in wasting physical resource that challenging we are facing now and will be more difficult times ahead.

--EDIT--
My point is growth in ebook market that we have seen, was mainly because of adoption phenomena and not largely due to replacement of printed, so the final kick to printed is yet to happen.

jgaiser · 02-09-2015, 10:11 PM

I love my ebooks, but... Paper isn't going away in any foreseeable future.

Lin2412 · 02-09-2015, 10:18 PM

I'm with jgaiser. Printed books will most likely exist even beyond the last of my days. I know at least two people with thousands of books in their libraries and refuse to get a kindle. There are really people who spend a lot of their money to buy beautiful hardbound covers and love the smell of books.

Pulpmeister · 02-09-2015, 10:19 PM

That may or may not be the case for new books, but just as we have libraries today with books on bamboo slips, rolls of papyrus, vellum, hand-made linen paper, and so on, physical books will continue to exist.

And no, those many millions of existing books will not all be converted to digital format, and available on an e-reader-- ever. Just too big a project. Of all the millions of physical books on the British Library catalogue, ask yourself what percentage are also avaialble as ebooks. A very small percentage indeed.

It's possible, even likely, that printed books may evolve towards the luxury end of the market, with digital books occupying the mass market currently occupied by paperbacks. Trying to predict future trends from past trends is useless. Just a while ago, vinyl was dead; now some bands are successfully marketing new vinyl albums as well as CDs and downloads.

And just think: all those stately mansions with libraries full of leather-bound printed books: The punters might not be impressed to see the library of, say, Chatsworth, adorned with a dozen Kindles on otherwise empty shelves. "That's our Library" says the guide proudly. "Ten thousand historical volumes..."

JohnRR · 02-09-2015, 10:28 PM

Also, in some countries, freedom of speech doesn't exist. It is illegal to own and read "sensitive" books. If those "sensitive books" are in digital form, it is much easier for the government to check and find them out (maybe by getting the info while you connect your ebook reader to the Internet). If it is paper books, you can burn those books when the government finds out. So I think people will rather have the paper books.

Furthermore, in some developing countries, not everyone has the chance to use ebook reader or smartphones as they are expensive. They are likely to choose paper books as the price is lower to them.

I believe paper books will still exist for a very very long time.

webroot · 02-09-2015, 11:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lin2412

....beyond the last of my days. ....

thats what i am thinking, when we printed books goes along with us, then it is reasonable to say printed books arent going effectively

webroot · 02-09-2015, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pulpmeister

That may or may not be the case for new books, but just as we have libraries today with books on bamboo slips, rolls of papyrus, vellum, hand-made linen paper, and so on, physical books will continue to exist.

And no, those many millions of existing books will not all be converted to digital format, and available on an e-reader-- ever. Just too big a project. Of all the millions of physical books on the British Library catalogue, ask yourself what percentage are also avaialble as ebooks. A very small percentage indeed.

It's possible, even likely, that printed books may evolve towards the luxury end of the market, with digital books occupying the mass market currently occupied by paperbacks. Trying to predict future trends from past trends is useless. Just a while ago, vinyl was dead; now some bands are successfully marketing new vinyl albums as well as CDs and downloads.

And just think: all those stately mansions with libraries full of leather-bound printed books: The punters might not be impressed to see the library of, say, Chatsworth, adorned with a dozen Kindles on otherwise empty shelves. "That's our Library" says the guide proudly. "Ten thousand historical volumes..."

You have the points but, how much these museum style libraries count in a commercial sales, perhaps researchers go there. And old dusting books before bugs eat them it is necessary to digitize them, once we have digital copies it wouldn't make a lot of effort to roll out ebooks. Also once these books have come to end of their life do you think publishers will reprint them without much commercial return.

i thinking what will be the hybrid form of after resurrection of printed books, in that case even these ebooks wont exist.

eschwartz · 02-09-2015, 11:29 PM

As Pulpmeister said, the case of vinyl provides an excellent guide for the future regarding paper books.

Personally, I foresee one specific market for pbooks that will never ever go away or even diminish -- the religious market. And here I am thinking specifically of Jews.
We cannot read ebooks on Shabbos. Pbooks fill an irreplaceable need.

eschwartz · 02-09-2015, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by webroot

You have the points but, how much these museum style libraries count in a commercial sales, perhaps researchers go there. And old dusting books before bugs eat them it is necessary to digitize them, once we have digital copies it wouldn't make a lot of effort to roll out ebooks. Also once these books have come to end of their life do you think publishers will reprint them without much commercial return.

i thinking what will be the hybrid form of after resurrection of printed books, in that case even these ebooks wont exist.

Those pbooks will last a lot longer than you seem to think, if they are well-treated. Being that this is an actual archival library we are talking about here, I am going to hazard a guess that the people who work there actually have a degree in the preservation of pbooks.

Many of them will not be digitized in any way shape or form until at least the date they go into the public domain. Which can be a long time yet. So your solution is no solution.

webroot · 02-09-2015, 11:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnRR

Also, in some countries, freedom ...e.

it is true in some Asian countries ebook adaption is pathetic but it is always increasing, i know this. US and western countries have more awareness towards technology so they adopt faster as soon as new things like kindles are rolled out but lately other countries are also becoming ebook trendy after smartphone and internet penetration is booming there.

webroot · 02-09-2015, 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eschwartz

Those pbooks ....

I accept your logic but if we come back to commercial side of it then? I believe in religion and follow to a good degree but i read somewhere that religious and cultural curiosity is diminishing worldwide. That article was about Britain but i guess but that case is similar in many other places. Really if these two boat sink it will be a big setback to printed books.

eschwartz · 02-10-2015, 12:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by webroot

I accept your logic but if we come back to commercial side of it then? I believe in religion and follow to a good degree but i read somewhere that religious and cultural curiosity is diminishing worldwide. That article was about Britain but i guess but that case is similar in many other places. Really if these two boat sink it will be a big setback to printed books.

The quote you quoted had nothing to do with religion and lots to do with commercialism and pursuit of filthy lucre

...

so working on the assumption you were referring to my previous post...

I don't really know how much the religious market will affect pbooks, although I know a lot of people who would definitely miss them on Shabbos, I don't think we have a huge impact on the market. Especially since I certainly read ebooks the other six days of the week.
I was just offering a random observation.

HarryT · 02-10-2015, 02:53 AM

This is a nonsensical argument. All the paper books in the world are not going to spontaneously evaporate. I'm sure we will reach a point at which they become a minority of the books that are published, but I'm certain that they will continue to be published for the foreseeable future, and of course, there are literally billions of printed books already in existence.

Nancy Fulda · 02-10-2015, 06:26 AM

For archival purposes, paper books are actually excellent. The data and the reading mechanism are one and the same.

Digital books are dependent on the devices and data formats that hold them. In thirty years, the books stored on a contemporary nook or kindle may become as inaccessible as a WordStar file stored on a 5 1/4 inch floppy.

Also, when planning for the future we really must take the zombie apocalypse into account, no? If the public power grid fails paper books are going to see a huge spike in popularity.

Jessica Lares · 02-10-2015, 07:35 AM

Education will always keep them relevant. I don't think we'll ever have a generation that is e-book only.

As for archiving... Yeah, they use a controlled environment.

02-09-2015, 10:02 PM	#1
webroot Zealot Posts: 108 Karma: 3026116 Join Date: Oct 2014 Device: android	Printed books will not exist after sometime We have seen booming growth for ebook industry and now ebook share is flattening and growth slowed down. Many peoples have drawn conclusion like, ebooks have reached (or reaching) their saturation point, so now ebooks and printed will coexist. Some gone to an extent that printed books will never go (<-- i am really curious what is the idea behind). Up-till now there is no shortage of older generation who admire printed books no matter if they also read ebooks. So lets say after 5 year or may decade when, that generation retire and we have totally new breeds who were never (or rarely) introduced to printed books instead they were exposed via ebooks way alone, will not then printed books slowly extinct? Printed books definitely offer some privilege but what will be the point in wasting physical resource that challenging we are facing now and will be more difficult times ahead. --EDIT-- My point is growth in ebook market that we have seen, was mainly because of adoption phenomena and not largely due to replacement of printed, so the final kick to printed is yet to happen. Last edited by webroot; 02-09-2015 at 11:56 PM. Reason: adding more detail

02-10-2015, 02:53 AM	#13
HarryT eBook Enthusiast Posts: 85,544 Karma: 93383043 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: UK Device: Kindle Oasis 2, iPad Pro 10.5", iPhone 6	This is a nonsensical argument. All the paper books in the world are not going to spontaneously evaporate. I'm sure we will reach a point at which they become a minority of the books that are published, but I'm certain that they will continue to be published for the foreseeable future, and of course, there are literally billions of printed books already in existence. Last edited by HarryT; 02-10-2015 at 05:50 AM.

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02-09-2015, 10:11 PM	#2
jgaiser Omnivorous Posts: 3,281 Karma: 27978909 Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Rural NW Oregon Device: Kindle Voyage, Kindle Fire HD, Kindle 3, KPW1	I love my ebooks, but... Paper isn't going away in any foreseeable future.

02-09-2015, 10:18 PM	#3
Lin2412 Grand Sorceress Posts: 456 Karma: 12931465 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Florida Device: Kindle	I'm with jgaiser. Printed books will most likely exist even beyond the last of my days. I know at least two people with thousands of books in their libraries and refuse to get a kindle. There are really people who spend a lot of their money to buy beautiful hardbound covers and love the smell of books.

02-09-2015, 10:19 PM	#4
Pulpmeister Wizard Posts: 2,518 Karma: 28893796 Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: Perth Western Australia Device: kindle	That may or may not be the case for new books, but just as we have libraries today with books on bamboo slips, rolls of papyrus, vellum, hand-made linen paper, and so on, physical books will continue to exist. And no, those many millions of existing books will not all be converted to digital format, and available on an e-reader-- ever. Just too big a project. Of all the millions of physical books on the British Library catalogue, ask yourself what percentage are also avaialble as ebooks. A very small percentage indeed. It's possible, even likely, that printed books may evolve towards the luxury end of the market, with digital books occupying the mass market currently occupied by paperbacks. Trying to predict future trends from past trends is useless. Just a while ago, vinyl was dead; now some bands are successfully marketing new vinyl albums as well as CDs and downloads. And just think: all those stately mansions with libraries full of leather-bound printed books: The punters might not be impressed to see the library of, say, Chatsworth, adorned with a dozen Kindles on otherwise empty shelves. "That's our Library" says the guide proudly. "Ten thousand historical volumes..."

02-09-2015, 10:28 PM	#5
JohnRR Connoisseur Posts: 61 Karma: 642334 Join Date: Sep 2013 Location: Earth Device: None	Also, in some countries, freedom of speech doesn't exist. It is illegal to own and read "sensitive" books. If those "sensitive books" are in digital form, it is much easier for the government to check and find them out (maybe by getting the info while you connect your ebook reader to the Internet). If it is paper books, you can burn those books when the government finds out. So I think people will rather have the paper books. Furthermore, in some developing countries, not everyone has the chance to use ebook reader or smartphones as they are expensive. They are likely to choose paper books as the price is lower to them. I believe paper books will still exist for a very very long time.

02-09-2015, 11:29 PM	#8
eschwartz Ex-Helpdesk Junkie Posts: 19,421 Karma: 85397180 Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: The Beaten Path, USA, Roundworld, This Side of Infinity Device: Kindle Touch fw5.3.7 (Wifi only)	As Pulpmeister said, the case of vinyl provides an excellent guide for the future regarding paper books. Personally, I foresee one specific market for pbooks that will never ever go away or even diminish -- the religious market. And here I am thinking specifically of Jews. We cannot read ebooks on Shabbos. Pbooks fill an irreplaceable need.

02-10-2015, 06:26 AM	#14
Nancy Fulda I write stories. Posts: 700 Karma: 16437432 Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Northern Germany Device: kindle	For archival purposes, paper books are actually excellent. The data and the reading mechanism are one and the same. Digital books are dependent on the devices and data formats that hold them. In thirty years, the books stored on a contemporary nook or kindle may become as inaccessible as a WordStar file stored on a 5 1/4 inch floppy. Also, when planning for the future we really must take the zombie apocalypse into account, no? If the public power grid fails paper books are going to see a huge spike in popularity.

02-10-2015, 07:35 AM	#15
Jessica Lares Wizard Posts: 2,240 Karma: 5759170 Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: Near Dallas, Texas, USA Device: iPad Mini, iPod Touch (5th gen)	Education will always keep them relevant. I don't think we'll ever have a generation that is e-book only. As for archiving... Yeah, they use a controlled environment.

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